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2009-03-12T11:04:00.003-04:00

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H2H Corner - Third Basemen Rankings

2009-01-22T20:57:00.002-05:00

By: Albert Lang

Holy Banana Republic! Third base is a deliciously deep fantasy position. If Garrett Atkins doesn’t get traded, and Chipper stays healthy (a slightly bigger if), you can pretty much rely on the top eight third basemen next year.

The debate surrounding third baseman is similar to that surrounding shortstops: who goes first and does he warrant being the first overall selection? For me, the answer to both those questions is David Wright. I have him two spots higher than Hanley Ramirez (my number one shortstop) and four spots higher than Alex Rodriguez.

Here is why. Not really, but it is fun to mess with A-Rod electronically. With A-Rod, you know what you get: 100+ runs, 35+ hrs, 100+ RBIs and a .300 average. Something else to keep in mind with A-Rod: there is an odd trend surrounding his homeruns, oddly enough, in odd years. In 2003, he hit 47 HRs; in 2005 the number was 48; and in 2007 he went deep 54 times. Contrast that to his production in even years: in 2004 he hit 36 and in 2006 & 2008, 35. If this trend continues, he is in line to hit more than 45 dingers in 2009. I’m guessing this is just a funky anomaly…but what if it’s not? In addition to A-Rod’s impressive power numbers, he also knows how to run. He hasn’t stolen less than 15 bases since 2002 (and has failed to reach this number only once in a full year during his career). So, A-Rod is amazing. I know it, you know it, Madonna knows it. His contemporary from Queens, however, is much more amazinger (go with me, I’m on a roll).

David Wright is similar to A-Rod in most offensive categories. Wright should get you 100+ runs, 30+ HRs and a batting average around .310. You can also count on his legs for 15+ stolen bases. Wright separates himself from A-Rod in two respects: age and doubles. Wright has averaged more than 41 doubles every full season in the majors. A-Rod, comparatively, has averaged just over 29. The doubles signal that Wright has room to grow in the power numbers, which will only help his counting stats. Quite simply, David Wright should improve while A-Rod has likely plateaued (though a hall of fame worthy plateau). In addition, Wright’s age makes him a less, albeit somewhat negligible, risk of injury and decline. Here, we are talking about four spots at the top of the draft; I think you can take David Wright first and not look back. He will be impressive, he will be healthy and his numbers should improve. You can’t say the exact same things about A-Rod.

Now I feel dirty talking about New York so much. On to the guys the Big Apple spotlight doesn’t shine so brightly on…yet.

After Kevin Youkilis, who is nasty, there is an interesting debate between the six – eight ranked players (Evan Longoria, Chipper Jones and Garrett Atkins). Evan Longoria is my sixth third baseman because of his numbers last year (.272 with 25 home runs in 122 games). If he stays healthy and continues to play to his potential a 30 home run campaign is not out of the question. The only slight concern with Longoria is the potential for a sophomore slump, but I’m still taking him in the 5th round and not looking back.

Meanwhile people tend to dismiss Chipper Jones. In his last five seasons, he has averaged about 123 games played, though he has eclipsed that number in each of the last two seasons. Aside from a bizarre 2004 campaign and his rookie season in 1995, Chipper hasn’t hit lower than .295 in his career. And, by the way, he should hit over 20 home runs, probably in the 25-28 window, drive in runs and score. Sure he might miss some games, but that is where his value comes into play. If you can get him in the 7th round and pair him with a sleeper back-up, you’ll have a first round quality third basemen in their cumulative statistics.

Garrett Atkins getting traded scares the DeJesus out of me. While suiting up for the Rocks full time, he hasn’t hit less than .286. Like Chipper you can count on 20+ homeruns (although it might take Atkins more games to do that in), he’ll score 80+ and drive in 100+.

Still, if I don’t get one of the top guys, I’m going with Longoria and banking on his upside. I’d rather use a fifth rounder on him, than grab someone like Carlos Delgado or Pena and wait to grab a Garrett Atkins. Chipper makes an interesting play, but you have to make sure you have a comparable back-up that can pick up the batting average slack. Because, lets be serious, who thinks Chipper is going to hit .364 again?

This is what I wrote about Troy Glaus before this happened: If none of the afore mentioned intrigue you, might I interest you in a third basemen who hasn’t hit less than 20 home runs in the last four years? Would you be surprised to learn this third baseman hit .270 with 27 HRs and 99 RBIs last year? And that you can get him fairly late in your draft? Ladies and gentleman (ok, just gentleman), I give you Troy Glaus. If you pick runs/stolen bases early in the draft (maybe Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins or Grady Sizemore), you could do worse than grabbing Glaus later on. When completely healthy, he has a real chance of hitting 35+ homeruns. Even when slightly healthy he should still get you 25+. He is only 32 and should be an 10th round draft pick – definite value and reliability you can pair with a riskier starting third basemen option. It’s cute right? Well back to reality.

Glaus immediately becomes a late round draft pick – someone you might be happy to store away on the DL in hopes that he comes back and can provide some pop in your lineup later in the year. Obviously this depends on your ability to stash people in DL slots. It almost makes sense to avoid him on draft day because it is more than likely he will eventually find his way to the waiver wire. Still, if you can stash him on the DL until May or so, he has value– it doesn’t hurt to have 15 home runs coming out of nowhere.

A young, potential Glaus clone is Chris Davis. Davis played in only 80 games last year, yet he hit 17 home runs and drove in 55 RBIs. He also batted .285 and scored 51 runs. The only concern is the kind of playing time he will get. If he starts, he could hit 30 homeruns and would find it almost impossible to score less than 80 runs and knock in around 100. Hitting in the Rangers lineup, in the launching pad of Arlington, means Chris Davis could become the preeminent sleeper third baseman. If you miss out on the top eight (or grab one of the riskier eight), make sure you have an idea where Davis might go, and then be sure you pick him a round ahead of that. He has a phenomenal chance to close the production gap.

Complete Third Basemen Ranks (* denotes projected starter):
David Wright*
Alex Rodriguez* (oh so pretty)
Miguel Cabrera* (positional flexibility)
Aramis Ramirez*
Kevin Youkilis*
Evan Longoria* (sophomore slump?)
Chipper Jones* (injury always a worry)
Garrett Atkins* (trade a concern)
Adrian Beltre* (Batting average should increase, which should help counting stats)
Jorge Cantu* (the numbers don’t lie…do they?)
Mark Reynolds* (so many strike outs)
Mark DeRosa* (positional flexibility, switch to AL)
Aubrey Huff* (great numbers last year)
Melvin Mora* (was RBI total a little fluky?)
Chone Figgins* (steals big source of value, better as a second bagger)
Chris Davis* (I like him)
Casey Blake* (good beard growing capabilities)
Kevin Kouzmanoff*
Edwin Encarnacion*
Alex Gordon* (at some point he might live up to the hype)
Mike Lowell* (age a concern)
Ryan Zimmerman* (bounced back to hit well last year…poor line-up, poor team)
Troy Glaus (injury zaps big bops)
Akinori Iwamura*
Ty Wigginton
Marco Scutaro
Mark Teehan
Freddy Sanchez* (never a huge fan of players that only get you batting average)
Felipe Lopez
Scott Rolen
Jeff Baker
Joe Crede
Pedro Feliz (he likes to hit homeruns…he likes to strike out)
Blake DeWitt
Ian Stewart
Rich Aurilia
Macier Izturis
Hank Blalock
Nick Punto
Aaron Miles
Ramon Vazquez
Greg Dobbs
Jeff Keppinger
Chase Headley (maybe low, but that line-up and ballpark don’t play nice for sophomore campaigns)
Omar Infante

H2H Shortstop Rankings

2009-01-07T21:57:00.002-05:00

h2h Corner

Shortstop Rankings

By: Albert Lang

I love Cal Ripken (platonically, of course, unless he said something…). He was a steady, predictable, trusted shortstop (and later third baseman). Though his numbers might never have been completely dominating (with the exception of his MVP year of 1991), his fantasy owners were always happy to have him.

The evolution from Cal to Hanley Ramirez/Jose Reyes/Jimmy Rollins began in the mid-to-late 1990s with players like Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada, and (to an overrated degree) Derek Jeter. As scoring exploded in this era, teams with offensive-minded shortstops setting the table and driving in runs appeared to be more successful.

Over were the days of great defense being king – or even valued (witness how difficult it is to ascertain Adam Everett’s true value). This new age has ushered in a new bread of fantasy superstars: the well-diversified offensive shortstop (be it via the stolen base, high batting average, runs scores, or, yes, homes runs/RBIs). Having this type of SS on your squad has become essential to the success of a fantasy squad.

The top three fantasy shortstops are pretty easy to predict (barring significant injury): Hanley Ramirez (#3 overall), Jose Reyes (4) and Jimmy Rollins (16). Given their numbers, you can make a case for taking either Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes with the top pick overall. Personally, I like Hanley Ramirez a bit more (and this really is splitting hairs) because his HR production has steadily improved from 17 to 29 to 33, while his batting average has stayed consistently around .300. My only concern is if his stolen base production continues to decline. In his first two full seasons, Ramirez swiped 51 bags, while last year he stole only 35. So long as he maintains that production, he will be the best fantasy shortstop for a long time (provided the Marlins hold off moving him to CF).

Jose Reyes doesn’t provide the pop that Hanley does, but he more than makes up for it with his legs and knowing how to use them. He has averaged 113 runs in each full season with at least 56 stolen bases each year. His batting average is a bit more suspect than Hanley’s, though it has hovered between .280 - .300 for the last three seasons. I don’t really like the Mets, but I love Jose Reyes. If they have any interest in Cesar Izturis, I’m sure the Orioles would be happy to make a deal (provided Izturis isn’t an Angelos favorite yet).

Outside the big 3, if you’re looking for a dependable player with decent upside, might I suggest Jhonny Peralta (66)? For someone I thought would have a comparable 2008 season to Khalil Greene, he put up very un-Greene-like numbers. Aside from 2006 (.257 and 13 HRs), Peralta hasn’t hit lower than .270 or less than 21 HRs in a full season. He should also get you 70+ RBIs (potentially more depending on where he hits in what could be a productive lineup) and 85+ runs (his career low is 82). Over the last four years, Peralta has quietly become a fairly consistent SS (and he could add 3b eligibility and flexibility to your line-up this year). While he might not possess the upside of a Rafael Furcal (75), he is nonetheless a good – and likely under the radar – option.

Speaking of upside, if you’re looking for a later-round shortstop with the potential for solid returns, think long and hard about Rafael Furcal (75) and Stephen Drew (93), particularly if they fall where they should (the seventh and ninth rounds, respectively). Both could experience better seasons this year than last. Furcal has the well-earned health specter hanging over his head: he has failed to play 140 games in four of his nine complete seasons. However, when he plays, he puts up delicious numbers. A healthy Furcal is good for 100-130 runs, 10-15 HRs, and 25+ SBs. He hasn’t posted an average worse than .275 and should be right around.280.

As for Stephen Drew, he posted a remarkable sophomore campaign. His batting average jumped from .238 to .291 (his 2008 numbers were actually more in line with his 209 at bats in 2006). He also scored 91 runs and hit 21 HRs. If he continues improving his batting average and adds a little pop – he might hit 27-30 HRs and be a good source of RBIs – he would be an excellent mid-round selection.

I wonder if I am a little low on Troy Tulowitzki (108). Because of the upside he presents, he could be a lot like Stephen Drew. I am ultimately dissuaded, however, because I like the consistency (and stolen bases) from Orlando Cabrera (102) (ya know, if someone wants to give up the picks and sign him already) and J.J. Hardy (96) a bit more. It wouldn’t be a reach, though, to consider Tulo over the three players ranked in front of him.

Last year’s top 13:

Jose Reyes (last year’s overall ranking: 2) Finished: 2^nd among shortstops
Hanley Ramirez (3) Finished: 1^st among shortstops
Jimmy Rollins (4) Finished: 4^th among shortstops
Orlando Cabrera (42) Finished: 9^th among shortstops
Carlos Guillen (44) Finished: 15^th among shortstops
Troy Tulowitzki (58) Finished: 33^rd among shortstops
Derek Jeter (65) Finished 7^th among shortstops
J.J. Hardy (73) Finished: 8^th among shortstops
Edgar Renteria (79) Finished: 18^th among shortstops
Khalil Greene (82) Finished: 56^th among shortstops
Jhonny Peralta (85) Finished: 3^rd among shortstops
Michael Young (88) Finished: 5^th among shortstops
Miguel Tejada (91) Finished: 11^th among shortstops

In retrospect, I was way too low on Michael Young and way too high on Orlando Cabrera and Carlos Guillen. Looks like I pegged Derek Jeter and J.J. Hardy right on though. Tulowitzki, I’m taking a mulligan (on account of his injury). Still, I never advocated taking him in the fourth round, which is where a lot of people drafted him.

If Jhonny Peralta continues his upward trajectory, failing to land one of the big three would necessitate getting Jhonny in the 6^th/7^th round. This could be a draft-changing/saving move. He could be undervalued in drafts and might provide a good SS at the right price if you are frozen out of the alpha dogs.

If you have a top pick, you could do worse than taking Pujols or Grady Sizemore. When the draft comes back around, however, make sure you can get Jimmy Rollins. It is hard to nitpick Jimmy’s value next year – he had injury problems and still made it back to a top 5 year. He is easily a second rounder in my book, but hopefully, you can get him toward the end of the round. This, surprisingly, makes Jimmy Rollins (with a tip of the hat to Jhonny Peralta) perhaps the best SS bargain.

Complete Shortstop Ranks (* denotes projected starter):

Hanley Ramirez*
Jose Reyes*
Jimmy Rollins*
Jhonny Peralta*
Michael Young*
Rafael Furcal* (health is a question here)
Derek Jeter*
Stephen Drew* (Could improve in the desert)
J.J. Hardy*
Orlando Cabrera (where will he end up?)
Troy Tulowitzki* (Wasn’t a big fan last year, but I didn’t predict injury-plagued campaign)
Miguel Tejada*
Christian Guzman
Ryan Theriot
Mike Aviles
Marco Scutaro
Carlos Guillen*
Yunel Escobar* (lots of swirling trade rumors)
Edgar Renteria* (yuck…AT&T Park…not cool)
Jed Lowrie
Bobby Crosby
Yuniesky Betancourt*
Clint Barmes
Jose Bautista
Jason Bartlett (Tampa Bay MVP? Seriously?)*
Brendan Harris
Cesar Izturis* (Way to go Orioles)
Jamey Carroll
Erick Aybar
Rich Aurilla
Macier Izturis
Nick Punto (Metrodomers love him)

H22 Corner

2009-01-01T23:29:00.002-05:00

Offseason Auction

By: Albert Lang

Are you pissed that your stove hasn’t been hot enough? Do you desperately wish that your team could bring in a highly touted free agent, but realize that it would probably set them back a few years? Is your greatest sense of hot stove joy jettisoning a poorly signed free agent in the first place?

If so, here is an avenue to get your fix: Hot Stove Fantasy Baseball.

Recently, a couple of friends and I got together, dressed up as our favorite GMs (here, here and here) and performed our very own Hot Stove Fantasy Auction.

Basically, it follows typical auction rules ($230 per team) and we set it up as a standard 5x5 Roto league. But, aside from head to head, I think you can do any type of league – SABR, run quantifier, points, etc.

The player universe is everyone that filed for free agency (including those desperate (smart?) few who accepted arbitration). You start 10 hitters (normal spots plus two utilities) and four SPs, three RPs and three general Ps. You cannot make any moves (other than trades) during the regular season and must fill each roster spot with a body.

The caveat here, to the normal auction, is that you can lock players up for multiple years. So the bidding on Mark Teixeira can reach 10 years and $35 per. This means that every year for the next 10 you are locked into spending $35 on Big Tex. You get to be your own Brian Cashman this way. There is also a buy-out clause in every signing – 75 percent of the dollars and 75 percent of the years, rounded up. So you can get out of paying the full price of an Albert Belle-type, but you aren’t fully let off the hook for a poor signing.

Once you are done with the auction, load the rosters into your favorite online league and watch as your team produces. This league is fully intended to bridge the gap between the end of fantasy football and pitchers and catchers.

This year provides a great leaping point because of the depth of the free agent class. Next year, you are looking at Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and Adrian Beltre – not quite Mark Teixeira, Rafael Furcal, Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn. Also, to provide some more perspective – the top free agents in 2007 were Alex Rodriquez, Jorge Posada, Mike Lowell, Barry Bonds and Andruw Jones.

I don’t have any strategy for you as I haven’t played this yet. However, I think the old stars and scrubs/LIMA strategy could be fruitful. Why rely on a bunch of middling free agents (Orlandos Hudson and Cabrera) when you can stock up on Tex, Furcal, Adam Dunn, and bridge the gap with people like Renteria and Grudzielanek? That’s about all I got. Randy Johnson could be a real sleeper, though.

Post a comment if you have any questions. I’d be happy to help you set up this type of league with your friends/officemates.

Second Basemen Rankings

2008-11-27T12:54:00.000-05:00

h2h Corner

By: Albert Lang

Ladies and Gentleman, your 2008 AL MVP is a second baseman. He also, probably, went late in every 10 team draft. In retrospect, the 2008 spring training suggested second base was a position on the rise, particularly when players like Dustin Pedroia were more of an afterthought in drafts.

Going into 2009, however, it appears there are only two healthy lockdown reliable second basemen (and the reigning MVP isn’t one of them). After this dynamic duo, things go from good (with upside) to dicey to scary. Ultimately, you’re reading this article because you’re looking for a second basemen you can trust (or because I’m spamming you). With some of the options so devoid of consistency (Rickie Weeks, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla please stand up), you’ll want to draft well, or else consign your fate to whoever has the hot hand in the free agent carousel (Jose Lopez, Alexei Ramirez, Kelly Johnson, Casey Blake...you get the picture).

The cream of the crop was supposed to be Chase Utley (I had finished a version of this article the day the news came out). Utley is a fantastic player, someone anyone would be happy to choose as their only second baseman—except for this calamity. Last year, he did an overwhelming amount of damage in April through the end of May (19 HRs, 49 RBIs and .310 average). In my opinion, the loss of time and 200+ at bats moves Utley into the 10th round range. He should be the 13th second basement off the board.

Still, many of you, I know, would like to make the upside play. You think you can make due with a below-average second baseman for half the season then kick into overdrive with Utley in the line-up (especially if you can grab him in the 6th round or so). I’ve been there. I’ve thought those thoughts. When it comes down to it, there are just too many risks associated with this play. When he does come back, will the injury still hamper him? Since he misses all of spring training, how long will it take him to get back into Utley shape?

This injury immediately bumps Ian Kinsler to the top of the board for second base. While he is not as durable as one might hope, Kinsler has excellent tools. If he can play 160 games, he could be the real 2009 Chase Utley. His numbers have been staggering (see my argument here). Still, the injury bug has to be a slight concern.

For some reason, people don’t seem to love Brian Roberts as much as I do. In interest of full disclosure, I’m a Baltimore Orioles fan. There is no bias, however, in B-Rob’s numbers. Last year, I drafted him early and was handsomely rewarded with a .296 average, 107 runs and 40 SBs – he even threw in 57 RBIs. Those numbers mirror his 2007 and are in line with 2006, (when he missed 20 games or so due to injury). Quite simply, he has proven that he scores runs, hits for a decent average and steals many bases. If Roberts is available anywhere in the third round of your draft, grab him. Think about it this way: if you can get Brian Roberts in the 3rd or Utley in the 6/7, you're going to be much much happier w/ B-Rob a couple of rounds earlier.

Chone Figgins could be a B-Rob light (minus the consistency). He is not a bad choice if he goes where he should, about the 8th/9th rounds. Figgins could offer a .280 average, 80+ runs, and 35+ SBs. Not horrible for that spot in the draft (and probably better numbers than what you can now expect from Utley).

2009 will test your faith in Brandon Phillips: which half year will show up? I loved him going into last year. He rewarded that love with a phenomenal first half, in which he hit .280 with 15 HRs, 58 RBIs and 19 SBs. His second half, however, was disastrous (.225/6/20/4). I’m willing to roll the dice with him as the 4th second basemen off the board, especially if he is available in the 4th/5th rounds. That could be a sneaky play if you get frozen out of the top steady second basemen. Phillips could solidify a weak position without being too costly and could very well end up being the top second basemen at the end of the year.

A potential sleeper for you: Mark Ellis – I could see taking a chance on him. There are some ifs surrounding him (will he stay healthy, will he get to bat in front of Matt Holliday (does this even matter), etc.), but his price will not be nearly as high as someone like Howie Kendrick. If those ifs work out, you could be looking at 20+ home runs – in his last full season (2007), he hit .276 with 19 HRs and 76 RBIs. In 140 fewer at bats last year, he hit 12 HRs and managed to steal 14 bases. A 15 HR/15 SB season is not out of his reach.

The opposite side to the California coin is Howie Kendrick. He falls into the same level of dislike that I have for Robinson Cano (detailed here). Both of them are, for reasons beyond me, tremendously overvalued. The tools are supposedly there, but the production definitely is not. Kendrick has played 72, 88 and 92 games in three “full” seasons. His high watermarks include a tidy .322 average, five HRs, 39 RBIs, 55 runs and 11 SBs. Combining his best seasons doesn’t even make a top 10 second basemen for me. If you’re in a shallow league and want to take a chance on upside knowing the free agent pool will be stocked with the reliable carousel mentioned above, go for it. But in deeper leagues, or more competitive leagues, I’d prefer to secure the services of a second bagger I know I can trust – kind of like going to a bookstore and buying almost any Graham Greene novel (with the possible exception of the Power and the Glory – wasn’t really a fan).

Last year’s top 13:
Chase Utley (last year’s overall ranking: 9) Finished: 2nd among second basemen
Brandon Phillips (10) Finished: 9th among second basemen
Brian Roberts (18) Finished: 4th among second basemen
Dan Uggla (38) Finished: 6th among second basemen
BJ Upton (40) Finished: 7th among second basemen
Chone Figgins (52) Finished: 20th among second basemen
Ian Kinsler (61) Finished 3rd among second basemen
Kelly Johnson (68) Finished: 10th among second basemen
Robinson Cano (72) Finished: 16th among second basemen
Placido Polanco (78) Finished: 11th among second basemen
Jeff Kent (81) Finished: 32nd among second basemen
Freddy Sanchez (95) Finished: 27th among second basemen
Orlando Hudson (96) Finished: 28th among second basemen

Outside of the Dustin Pedroia oversight (he finished 1st), these rankings are pretty spot on. The high level of trust in Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla sure looked good in the first half of the season, but, alas, slumps and injuries (or reversions to form?) derailed both their seasons, as well as my keeper team which started Phillips at second and Uggla at IF.

I liked Ian Kinsler, but not enough. I love Kinsler for next year. My dislike and low ranking of Robinson Cano was accurate. I’m still dubious on whether he can hit for a high average. Meanwhile Jeff Kent gets the Todd Helton first basemen ranking treatment.

Below, I love the top two. After that, I feel like there is a gulf of consistency between them and 3-5. With a repeat year, or something close to it, Dustin Pedroia would vault into the top tier (along with a healthy Utley) for 2010. For now though, if you want to guarantee yourself an elite second basemen, I’d stick to Ian Kinsler and Brian Roberts.

Complete Second Baseman Ranks (* denotes projected starter):
Ian Kinsler*
Brian Roberts*
Dan Uggla*
Brandon Phillips*
Dustin Pedroia*
Mark Derosa*
Chone Figgins (if he retains eligibility)*
Jose Lopez*
Alexei Ramirez (sophomore slump?)*
Kelly Johnson*
Robinson Cano (eh – as discussed here)*
Casey Blake (depending on where he ends up)*
Chase Utley (when does he really return from injury?)*
Rickie Weeks (Will he be traded? Will he get playing time? Will his body work?)
Placido Polanco*
Ryan Theriot*
Akinori Iwamura*
Ty Wiggington
Marco Scutaro
Freddy Sanchez (a healthier version of Howie Kendrick)*
Kazuo Matsui*
Clint Barmes
Ray Durham
Felipe Lopez
Mark Ellis (Sneaky play here with upside of 20+ HRs)
Alexi Cassila
Jeff Kent (Yeah…he got old)
Orlando Hudson (He could move up depending on what line-up he slots into)*
Jose Bautista
Blake DeWitt
Ronnie Belliard
Howie Kendrick (I don’t like Howie Kendrick…guys who derive most of their value from BA are not my favorite)*
Asdrubal Cabrera
Ian Stewart (3b of the future? At bats could free up if the Rocks move Atkins)
Ramon Vazquez (could put up interesting numbers with full time at bats)

First Basemen Rankings

2008-11-14T23:49:00.001-05:00

h2h Corner

By: Albert Lang

I recently took a business trip to the west coast – I learned that it is far. Thankfully my roommate (he is a DJ and also really good at Survivor Fantasy) lent me his iPod. Since he is a DJ, he has loads of pop music. While I still love listening to the whimsical Don’t Think Twice It’s Alright, I cant deny the joy I get from Burnin’ Up or Hot N Cold (man Katy Perry’s songwriter = the amazing). I can’t remember a time when pop music was so consistent and fraught with as many heavy hitters, which, now makes the rambling preamble pertinent.

The not-so-hot corner (unless Ryan Howard [lefty] is up) represents a deep pool of home run hitters and RBI collectors. This is, perhaps, the steadiest position, year in year out. Outfield is deep, and you start three (sometimes more) for a reason. But outfielders possess the full gamut of fantasy statistics, while, with first basemen, you really only need think about HR/RBI production.

There isn’t anything shocking in these rankings – I’ve long been a fan of Lance Berkman, although I never seem to get him. His stolen base output (18) was great, but don’t expect that when figuring out your plans on draft day.

In my opinion, there is a core of nine reliable first basemen. This means you can wait on the position in drafts and try to acquire elite players at more elusive positions and stat categories early. There is no shame, however, in securing HR/RBI production – week in, week out – by grabbing an Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard in the first round.

That said, I am not sold on Carlos Delgado, Derrek Lee (mostly because of how he spells his first name), David Ortiz and Carlos Pena. Quite simply, where did Delgado’s first half self go? In April, May and June, Delgado hit .198, .258 and .229 with 3, 5 and 6 home runs respectively. Regardless, that horrendous start is in there somewhere, and it could come back like that sketchy rash you got vacationing in Tijuana.

Lee doesn’t provide the power or RBIs slotting into the middle of a potent line-up that an owner would like to see. He seems far removed from his MVP-esque numbers in 2005, when he hit .335 with 46 HRs, 107 RBIs and 15 SBs. Last year (a comeback year of sorts), he hit .291 with 20 HRs, 119 RBIs and 8 SBs. In his last three seasons he has hit a combined 50 HRs; reaching his 2005 levels now seems unattainable.

Meanwhile there are a lot of question marks around Big Papi. What does the loss of Manny, if anything, mean? Will Jason Bay provide the necessary protection? Will his wrist heal fully? He appeared to be cheating on fast balls down the stretch. With first base, I’d rather not take a chance and draft him early expecting Morneau-, Fielder- or Youkilis-level production. Given where I rank him, there is a good chance for upside. I see him as a solid UTIL on someone’s squad.

I bought heavily into Carlos Pena last year. It didn’t pay the dividends I would have liked, especially when Adrian Gonzalez was still on the board 2-3 rounds later. That said, Pena provides a good chance at 35+ HRs and 100+ RBIs. I guess what I’m saying is, if he is the 13^th first basemen off the board, you have a good upside play on your hands.

I also really like Joey Votto – he could provide some great stats in that ballpark. In what was essentially a full season, he hit .297 with 24 HRs, 84 RBIs and 7 SBs. Lots of upside there.

Last year’s top 15*:

Prince Fielder (last year’s overall ranking: 14) Finished: 11^th among first basemen
David Ortiz (19) Finished: 22^nd among First Baseman
Ryan Howard (23) Finished: 4^th among First Baseman
Carlos Pena (25) Finished: 20^th among First Baseman
Albert Pujols (27) Finished: 1^st among First Baseman
Lance Berkman (28) Finished 2^nd among First Baseman
Justin Morneau (41) Finished: 9^th among First Baseman
Adrian Gonzalez (50) Finished: 8^th among First Baseman
Derrek Lee (66) Finished: 14^th among First Baseman
Mark Teixeira (69) Finished: 3^rd among First Baseman
Carlos Delgado (76) Finished: 10^th among First Baseman
Kevin Youkilis (77) Finished: 6^th among First Baseman
Paul Konerko (83) Finished: 37^th among First Baseman
Adam LaRoche (89) Finished: 25^th among First Baseman
Todd Helton (98) Finished: 52^nd among First Baseman

*Miguel Cabrera wasn’t ranked because he didn’t have first basemen eligibility yet.

Man…Todd Helton was the first draft pick in fantasy I ever made – it’s sad to see him fall to these depths. What can you do though? I wasn’t too interested in him last year and want no part of him this year.

I was a little too bullish on Carlos Pena it appears, and the David Ortiz injury really hurt that prediction. I thought Prince Fielder was the second coming of Ryan Howard…I was wrong. I do expect the same kind of season next year, maybe a tick better.

It pays to go with consistency at first base, which is why Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez make up my top five fantasy first baseman next year.

Complete First Baseman Ranks:

Albert Pujols
Ryan Howard
Lance Berkman (probably will not repeat his stolen base performance)
Mark Teixeira (regardless of where he lands)
Adrian Gonzalez
Miguel Cabrera
Justin Morneau
Prince Fielder
Kevin Youkilis
Carlos Delgado (kind of scary putting him here, cant argue with 2/3 of his season though)
Derrek Lee
David Ortiz (no Manny, no problem? Hurt wrist = problem)
Carlos Pena (legit 30+ HR possibility)
Jason Giambi (where will he end up?)
Joey Votto
Jorge Cantu (could regress)
Mark Reynolds (prefer him as your 3b – one of these years he will put together a good *lucky* batting average campaign)
Mark Derosa
Aubrey Huff
Mike Jacobs
Conor Jackson (man, did he fade)
Adam LaRoche
Chris Davis
Nick Swisher
James Loney (not so high on him…never was)
Ryan Garko (see catcher rankings)
Kevin Millar (consistently below average)
Alex Gordon (so woefully inconsistent)
Lyle Overbay (consistent)
Eric Hinske
Casey Kotchman
Victor Martinez (you want him for his other eligibility)
Ty Wiggington
Paul Konerko (could he be D.O.N.E.?)
Billy Butler (let’s just say, I don’t believe in the Royals)
Matt Stairs (platoon in Philly, if Burrell gone?)
Daric Barton
Rich Aurillia
Greg Dobbs (ditto the Stairs talk)
Ross Gload
Darin Erstad (he wasn’t entirely unusable last year…but yeah, he was close)
Martin Prado (interesting numbers down the stretch: .335 BA, 25 runs, 2 HRs, 25 RBIs in the second half, massive positional flexibility, cool name)

H2H Catcher Rankings

2008-10-23T20:31:00.003-04:00

Catcher Rankings

“Variable, this is Knife! Over! Variable, this is Knife! Over! Variable, this is Knife! Where the heck are you!?!?”

With that out of the way, let me clean up the catching variables: depending on where Cap’n ‘Tek ends up, he could fall completely off this list or move up (you assume someone paying him good free agent money would give him more playing time than the Sox might).

There are also a lot of rumblings about Boston trading for a young stud catcher (which should probably shake up/clarify the Texas catcher situation). Until that stuff plays itself out, it’s hard to rank the Saltalamacchias and Teagardens of the world.

I don’t know if there is a ton of surprise here outside of the Indians catcher position. This is more an indictment of Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner than anything else. It is conceivable that Victor Martinez slides to first base or DH to make way for Shoppach to get more at bats. While getting his first opportunity at consistent playing time, Shoppach hit three times as many HRs (21) and twice as many doubles (27) as last year – granted he had about twice as many at bats in 2008 than in 2007. He also scored 67 runs (and if the Indians offense improves) that number could increase to somewhere in the 80s in 2009. He was a second round draft pick by the Boston Red Sox, so there is potential here. It will be important to see how Matt Laporta does in camp – if he can snag an everyday spot in the line-up that could limit Shoppach’s upside.

Mike Napoli at 13 seems about right to me. In some (smaller) leagues I might take a chance on him over proven vets like AJ Pierzynski or Ramon Hernandez. He did hit .273 last year with 20 HRs and 7 stolen bases. He could conceivably be a 25 HR 10 SB guy. That combination of stats in a catcher is intriguing.

There’s also Matt Wieters. Let’s see if he breaks camp first before he gets ranked. But man, am I looking forward to his debut. I haven’t been this excited since Ben MacDonald…we all know what can happen with prospects, eh J.R. Towles?

“Circular error probable zero. Impact with high-order detonation. Have a nice day.”

Complete Ranks:

Brian McCann (overall ranking: 61)
Russell Martin (69)
Joe Mauer (76)
Geo Soto (87)
Ryan Doumit (125) – can he stay healthy?
Jorge Posada (128) – ditto
Bengie Molina (132)
Victor Martinez (148) – where has the power gone?
Kelly Shoppach (153) – will he get at-bats?
AJ Pierzynski (164)
Chris Iannetta (169)
Ramon Hernandez (176) – watch our for Matt Wieters
Mike Napoli (178) – will he claim that stat potential?
Chris Snyder (185)
Dioner Navarro (209)
Kurt Suzuki (210)
Yadier Molina (212)
Gerald Laird (218)
Ivan Rodriguez (223)
Rod Barajas (225)
John Buck (236)
Miguel Olivo (241)
Jason Veritek (249) – his landing spot could answer a lot of question marks.
Pablo Sandoval
Jeff Clement

Last year’s top 10*:

Russell Martin (last year’s overall ranking: 29) Finished: 3^rd among catchers
Victor Martinez (60) Finished: 27^th among catchers
Jorge Posada (76) Finished: 39^th among catchers
Brian McCann (102) Finished: 2^nd among catchers
Joe Maurer (103) Finished: 1^st among catchers
Geovany Soto (109) Finished 5^th among catchers
Kenji Johjima (110) Finished: 34^th among catchers
Bengie Molina (160) Finished: 6^th among catchers
A.J. Pierzynski (175) Finished: 8^th among catchers
Ryan Doumit (178) Finished: 4^th among catchers
Mike Napoli (195) Finished: 10^th among catchers
Ramon Hernandez (205) Finished: 11^thamong catchers

*I only ranked 12 catchers last year for two reasons. One: I didn’t play in a league – beside my 18-team SABR auction competition, which was an entirely different ranking experience – that had more than 10 teams. Two: typically people don’t double up on catchers. Frankly, after the top five, it gets a little muddy anyway. The injuries to V-Mart and Posada hurt my initial rankings and Johjima being horrible didn’t help, but otherwise, it appears my rankings ended up suitable for a standard 5x5 h2h league.

By: Albert Lang

H2H Rankings, Part I

2008-10-14T23:42:00.001-04:00

I’m writing this article in protest – it’s certainly not because I need the money. My editors – I guess in keeping with Fantasy Baseball 101’s mission – won’t let me post my Survivor: Gabon, Earth’s Last Eden fantasy breakdown. Unfortunately (as you cringe), this is not a joke. I play and get killed in Fantasy Survivor every year. I once dominated Fantasy Apprentice (where have you gone Donald?!?) and posted good showings in Fantasy college football (love me some P.J. Hill). Of course I play fantasy football (4 leagues) and fantasy basketball (I won three years in a row, but failed to reach the finals last year).

Notwithstanding all these diverse interests, fantasy baseball remains my true (and first) love. This game or philosophic sporting viewpoint reminds me of Al from Step by Step – bear with me. This seminal program occurred at a decisive time for me: TGIF was still reasonably cool to watch and I was entering my teen years. So, I dedicate this column to Christine Lakin (nope, didn’t have to look it up).

Keeping this in mind, I’m going to run through my initial hitter rankings step-by-step for 2009 h2h 5x5 standard leagues. First I’ll provide a global perspective, then I’ll go position by position and end with SPs and RPs. I separate hitters and pitchers in my rankings because they are wholly different animals. If you don’t know me, I greatly devalue pitchers.

The LIMA strategy was butter to my bread back in the day. I tweaked to include the “I can’t believe Aaron Harang will continue to fall to me in the 8th/9th round,” strategy. This year he went in the 6th/7th and he ended up on none of my teams. We’re grooming James Shields to take over Harang’s role. Pitcher rankings will be forthcoming in a post framed as an ode to Eliza Dushku (don’t tell me you didn’t watch Buffy the Vampire Slayer).

I normally spend my first 8-9 draft picks on hitters. Then I binge on pitchers from 10-17 or so and try to grab sleepers where I think appropriate. I also tend to hate drafting catchers early (so they will be inordinately low on my board). I had Russell Martin in 2007 and Soto this year. If you can get top-flight catcher production in the 18-30 rounds of a draft, you already have a leg up.

The Yankees I’m low on
Yes I hate the Yankees as an entity/demonic societal subgroup, but I’ve been on the record the last few years as loving Damon (#35) and Abreu (#24). I think Derek Jeter (#81 hitter) is overvalued – he had those 34 stolen bases in 2006, but that is the outlier. Since then he has averaged 13 and in 2005 tallied only 14. You know what you’ll get from him 110 runs, 10-15 HRs, 65-75 RBIs and 10-15 SBs. That, my friends, is a poor man’s Michael Young (#68 in the rankings)

Robinson Cano (#106) is a great second half hitter (.280 versus .327 lifetime). Unfortunately he started this season well below that career .280 at .246. Clearly, he has been useful in the second half of every season he’s played and he has some upside, but don’t pay for pinstripes or someone who can cripple your BA. Also, I don’t know if you can count on him producing a ton of runs, HRs or RBIs, especially if he continues to hit in the 7-9 spots in the lineup.

I loved Carlos Guillen (#157) in 2004 – he brought me my first h2h title (of course that was a league on 'roids – we used doubles, triples, CGs, no-nos, etc.). I actually traded Kevin Millwood for Miguel Cabrera and Troy Percival in that league, but I digress. In the last four years, Carlos has averaged 91.5 games played. I was offered AROD and Guillen for Jose Reyes in a league this year. I turned it down saying I valued Reyes over AROD (which I do) and that Guillen was waiver wire fodder. I was quickly rebuffed. Well, by the end of the year, Guillen was with the other losers at the high school dance – unclaimed and alone.

Speaking of Miguel Cabrera (#18)…outside of the first year, I haven’t been his biggest fan. I had him in the low-twenties last year, while he was a consensus top 12 pick or so. He is young and reliable, although not quite at the AROD/Pujols level in my mind (obviously given my rankings). He only averaged 88 runs in his last two seasons and provides virtually no stolen bases. Home Runs, RBIs and BA consistency are good, but you can get that in later rounds (Carlos Lee, Abreu, Vlad, Dunn, etc.). I’d much rather grab a multi-dimensional player in the first two rounds or someone who dominates a category or two (Ryan Howard).

Still, the biggest surprise of all: FIVE Nationals made the hitter rankings – I’m as dumbstruck as you.

On to the Christine Lakin squad (those I love more than anyone else does):
Grady Sizemore (#2): a lot has been written about him. He is great and should be MVP. I’ve ranked him in the top 12 the last two years. He provides two of the more statistically important categories: HRs and SBs. In h2h, those categories get the least amount of weekly points, so accumulating them is helpful. The runs will be there next year in Cleveland (they cant be this bad). I’m not worried about his BA decline as his Ks have also gone down – it’ll adjust. If I get a top 5 pick, I’m trading down and taking Grady and recouping a ton of value when the draft slithers back in the second round. In short, I wish I were one of Grady’s ladies.

Let me introduce you to Ian Kinsler (#15), second rounder. Apparently I have an affinity for short haired, kind of goofy looking ball players. People have forgotten that he was a legitimate MVP candidate before going down with an injury. While he may be assuming an injury-prone tag, he only missed 40 games this year and 30 last year. Plus his production for the season – not adjusted for the time he missed – was good enough for top 30 in my book. He also amassed 38 more hits this year than last year in just 35 more at bats. Bumping him up as a Chase Utley clone into the late second round doesn’t seem unreasonable to me. Also, if this global warming thing is true, it’s just going to get more and more humid in Arlington.

The other three surprise candidates all rank in the top 35: Matt Kemp (#21), Jason Bay (#23), and Shane Victorino (#32). Sign me up, I’m a signed, sealed, believer in Matt Kemp. He lowered his strike-outs by 65 in the second half, albeit in 80 fewer at bats. Those fewer at bats didn’t hinder his power, though, as he hit nine home runs both before and after the All Star break. Maybe I’m a little bullish on him by counting on a repeat SB performance, but for a player who might not have reached his full potential, I’d grab him in the second round and be ecstatic.

Jason Bay as a stolen base aficionado is clearly a one-hit wonder (where have you gone 2005?). Since joining the Red Sox, Bay, in 200 less at bats, had only 13 less home runs and remarkably 27 fewer RBIs than with the woeful Pirates. He’s good, he’s out of Pittsburgh, he ain’t a reach in the third round. He’s also anchoring my post-season fantasy team.

Shane Victorino (#32): I dubbed as the 2008 version of the 2007 version of Eric Byrnes. I loved Victorino, especially in relation to where he was going. But by the time it would be prudent to pick him, I had loaded my plate with so many OFs that I had to watch a lucky schmuck grab him and rejoice. Of course, as someone who loves Byrnes, you don’t need to remind me of his regression. Victorino doesn’t have the health issues Byrnes had, plays in a hitter’s park and slots into a delicious line-up. He was a sixth round pick by the Dodgers in 1999 and you should laugh to the championship if you get him around there.

So, how crazy are my h2h rankings? Let me know, post a comment!!!

By: Albert Lang

NL Fantasy Baseball MVP

2008-10-06T21:46:00.005-04:00

Shortly after the playoffs end pundits Will review their choice for the National League MVP award. For us fantasy baseball folk, our analysis is a different. For example, in roto leagues, we value players who are dominant in specific categories. We favor the Corey Hart's of the league over the .250 30 homerun hitter. In real life, Carlos Delgado is likely to receive strong consideration from the beat writers for his ability to bring the Mets back from dead in the middle of the summer. And, indeed, Delgado was a valuable player in fantasy baseball as well, but he should not be fawned over as much since he is only a two-category player.

How do we go about choosing the most valuable fantasy player? There are many methodologies to consider. They include: VORP - Value over Replacement Player, position scarcity analysis, all around best statistics in the five hitting categories, or best value compared to draft position. Reasonable people may disagree on the choice, and that is part of the fun. For our purposes, we are not conducting a scientific analysis. Rather, we are going with the unscientific analysis of asking ourselves, "who would you have drafted first overall if you had the benefit of hindsight?" We do not consider value compared to draft position because we will consider players under that analysis in a separate article (Ryan Ludwick, Matt Kemp, Jorge Cantu, etc.). Here are the contenders:

Albert Pujols (.357-37-116-7-100)
Ryan Howard (.251-48-146-1-105)
Hanley Ramirez (.301-33-67-35-125)
Matt Holliday (.321-25-88-28-107)
David Wright (.302-33-124-15-114)
Lance Berkman (.312-29-106-18-114)

We believe these players were a cut above the rest in the National League this year. As a comparison, 30 players in the NL hit 25 or more homers, 14 had 100 rbi's or more, 11 had 25 steals or more, and 14 had a .300 batting average or higher.

And the winner is . . .

Albert Pujols. His .351 batting average is so far ahead of the average player that it really sets him apart. But his 37 homers and 116 rbi's are nothing to scoff at either. Pujols finished second in the NL in average, 4th in hr, 4th in rbi's, and 14th in runs. Although he only stole seven bases, his other stats are so dominant that he is most deserving of the NL fantasy baseball MVP award. It should also be noted that his preseason draft position fell due to fears that he would have surgery on his elbow. Compare him to his competitors.

Our runner up is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez gets extra points for being an offensive force at shortstop, a position known for its scarcity of talent. His stolen bases and runs are clearly superior to most of the other players on the list, and his batting average and homers, especially when compared to other shortstops, are particularlyu impressive. In fact, his value over other NL shorstops is so great that it was hard not to choose him as MVP. But in the final analysis, Pujols' 50 extra points in batting average and 49 extra rbi's were the decider.

The other contenders have a similar story. Pujols dwarfs Matt Holiday's and Lance Berkman's stats in average, homers and rbi's. As a third basemen, David Wright is a strong contender and his stats are roughly similar to Pujols'. But Pujols had a batting average that was 55 points higher than Wright! That's like choosing someone who hit .245 over someone who hit .300. Conversely, Pujols' homers and rbi's pale in comparison to Ryan Howard's production. With a solid end of the season, Howard proved he was an offensive juggernaut, smashing 48 homers and driving in 146 runs. In fact, Howard's homers and especially his rbi's, are every bit as dominant as Pujols' batting average. But Howard loses out because he provides a net loss in two categories: batting average and steals. Howard's .251 average actually hurts most teams' batting average, and his one stolen base cannot compare to the others on this list.

Have a different opinion? Have a different choice in a H2H league? Feel free to share your opinion in the comment section.

Fantasy Baseball Playoffs

2008-10-01T21:58:00.001-04:00

There’s Only ONE October!!! Really? And, only once a year can you play Fantasy Baseball Play-offs! And I bet you thought fantasy baseball season was over. Wrong.

Play-offs!?! Play-offs!?! Yes, fantasy baseball head to head play-offs exist.

Recently, my two best baseball buddies held a brief post-season draft. You can follow the standings here. If you need help incorporating into your local leagues, let me know and I can get you the spreadsheet. In general, you should follow typical h2h draft strategy (ignore pitchers, grab good hitters, diversify and claim HRs and SBs where possible).

Our version of post-season FB adds a new dimension: playing time, i.e. there is no redraft once players are eliminated.

So it behooves you to factor in players who will advance because then you get more pitching appearances and with that greater opportunities for Wins, Strike-outs, Saves, etc and more at-bats, which should help in almost every hitting category.

Still, I tend to agree that the baseball play-offs are more or less a crapshoot. So I draft on best available, others though draft from teams they think will move on. Sure, if two players are close, I’ll roll the dice with the guy on the team I think will go further, but in general, grab best available.

When the Cardinals won the World Series I had the 3rd/4th picks, I took Pujols. I won. Conversely, last year, Chris loaded up on Rockies and was rewarded.

The draft went like this: http://tinyurl.com/FantasyBaseballPlayoffs

Written by Albert Lang

Undervalued AL Starting Pitchers

2008-09-25T17:02:00.004-04:00

In previous articles we've examined players who should improve their performance in 2009. Today, we examine American League starting pitchers who may not necessarily improve their performance, but should remain undervalued in 2009 fantasy drafts and auctions. Astute fantasy baseball managers will keep these guys in their back pocket come draft time.

1. John Danks

After getting kicked around a bit in his 2007 rookie season, Danks has rebounded nicely in 2008 and has put up some solid numbers. With the season nearing a close, Danks has a 3.20 ERA, 11 wins, and 150 K's in 183 innings pitched. He's a former number 1 draft pick, and possesses a terrific change up, a wicked curveball and a low 90's fastball. Expect Danks to build on his 2008 performance in 2009.

2. Gavin Floyd

Also a former first round draft pick, Floyd struggled in Philadelphia before landing with the Whitesox as the centerpiece of the Freddy Garcia trade. He struggled in 2007, but his immense talent was on display for all to see in 2008. He's racked up 16 wins to go with a 3.84 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Expect more of the same in 2009, but he will be less valued than veterans with the same stats.

3. Scott Baker

After discussing two first round picks, we move onto Baker, who was a second round pick. Baker has four big league pitches, including a nasty sinking fastball and a knuckle-curve. He is known for his superb control, but his 132 K's in 165 innings pitched show an ability to strike out batters as well. Baker has chalked up a 3.59 ERA, 10 wins, and a 1.20 WHIP this season. Expect more wins and a similar WHIP in '09.

4. Shaun Marcum

This third-round draft choice followed up a solid, under the radar, 2007 season with an even better 2008 campaign. He has tossed 126 innings and has let up ony 126 hits, while walking 50 batters. We always love pitchers who have a superb IP:H ratio. Marcum also has shown an ability to strike out batters; whiffing almost one hitter per inning pitched. A 3.39 ERA and 10 wins round out the rest of Marcum's stats. As his stamina improves, Marcum should pitch deeper into games in 2009, which means more wins and strikeouts. We wouldn't be shocked, however, if his ERA regresses slightly.

5. Gil Meche

Another former first round pick, Meche is already a veteran of eight major leagues seasons. For most of his career, he was on the DNP list - DO NOT DRAFT, but his last three seasons have been surprisingly good. In fact, his numbers have steadily improved in each of the past four seasons. This year, he has a 4.05 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, 13 wins, and 176 K's in 204 innings pitched. While we do not recommend drafting Meche early, he is a solid middle rotation guy in AL only leagues, and back of the rotation guy in mixed leagues. He's not an exciting option, but he's finally showing consistency and the ability go put up good fantasy numbers.

How to Win a Standard 5x5 H2H League

2008-09-22T23:21:00.001-04:00

How do you win a standard* daily 5x5 h2h league?
It’s as easy as pick six lotto (or pick five if you have the tie-breaker).

Fantasy finals (especially in non-keeper leagues) are all about the last two weeks of the season. It’s entirely “what have you done for me lately.” Carlos Quentin: not so much, kick him off the roster. Ryan Howard: you’re happy you weathered the storm. Jayson Werth, you’re happy he’s done his best non-SF Aaron Rowand impersonation.

This means players like Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Christian Guzman (yes even that Guzman), Kelly Shopach and maybe even Elijah Dukes need to find a way into your position player rotation.

You need to be streaming your roster spots to ensure you have a full hitting roster every day. Don’t worry about jettisoning an average player for fear your opponent will grab him. Any reasonable waiver period will make the gain negligible given what you made up by not having an empty roster spot. This does not mean I’m advocating dropping top 50 players…but outside of that, yeah sure.

This should signal that players now have different values given different circumstances. A valuable player in one league could very well be the love child of Jose Mesa/Armando Benitez in another.

If your competition is full of mashers and you haven’t beaten them all year in HRs, don’t worry about home runs. You need to find the categories you can win and go after those.

After two days, it is pretty clear what will and will not be competitive. You’re out in HRs and RBIs? Make sure you win Runs and SBs. This means it makes sense to drop the Carlos Penas of the world for a Willie (be it Harris or Tavaris) or Erick Patterson or Lastings Milledge or Coco Crisp.

Carlos Pena, in this instance, has no value to you or your opponent. If your opponent grabs the discarded Pena, he’ll only increase his lead in categories he’ll win anyway.

While streaming position players can help you on those Mondays and Thursdays, the real streaming power comes with starting pitching. Pitching categories are the easiest to manipulate on a week by week basis (because no one knows what they’ll get from virtually any hurler – viva Ted Lilly).

It’s important to know your opponent’s roster. High K pitchers on good win teams could make winning Wins and K’s difficult. So focus on vulturing saves (Hanrahan, the Orioles carousel, etc.), but make sure every pitcher you plug in maximizes ERA and WHIP.

Quite simply, it’s not about performing the best in every category and having the best all around team. It’s about performing the best in six categories.

There is a special caveat to the streaming – make sure you can get up early and make sure your league doesn’t have innings or moves caps.

If you can’t get up at 7:00 am, you might miss out on the best streamable pitchers. This means you’ll have to start streaming two days ahead or give up altogether.

If there is an IP limit, plan out how many innings you have left and what you can reasonably expect from your staff and move forward accordingly. Don’t leave starts or IPs out there, you’ll regret it.

If you’re up against a moves limit, you’ll have to maximize every move.

People may hate streamers not associated with a tickertape parade, but the strategy paves the way to fantasy gold. Look at the wire (in 10-12 team leagues), you’ll find:
Kevin Millwood (vs. OAK [1.35 ERA 0.90 WHIP])
Jamie Moyer (vs. FLA [3.12 ERA, 0.92 WHIP])
John Lannan (vs. SD [3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP])
Ryan Rowland-Smith (vs. LAA [4.05 ERA, 0.90 WHIP]).

I think you get the point.

Happy streaming and winning. Have a scenario, start/sit, or fantasy ethics question, e-mail me at albert_l_Langiii@yahoo.com

*standard = R, HR, RBI, SB, AVE, W, S, K, ERA, WHIP

AL Hitters for '09

2008-09-21T20:43:00.002-04:00

We've covered NL hitters who could surprise people in 2009; now it's the American League's turn. Guys like Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, and Alex Rodriguez are obvious choices. But who are the good players, who do not pose much of a risk, that should exceed expectations in 2009? Below are a few of the guys we have our eyes on.

1. Dustin Pedroia

Prior to this season Pedroia was a middle-of-the-pack second basemen who provided teams with a good batting average, but not much else. His minor league stats seemed to confirm that analysis. But all that changed this year, as Pedroia showed that he is a five category fantasy player. With the season coming to an end, Pedroia has already hit for .324-17-80-19. While his value will go up in 2009, we think he has a chance to exceed expectations, largely because of his league leading 52 doubles. The doubles lead us to believe that Pedroia could hit for more power in 2009 as he continues to mature. We expect a similar season to '08, but with more homers.

2. Nick Markakis

No stranger to fanballers, Markakis performed below most expectations in '08. He performed well - .300-20-86-10 is good, but many were disappointed with only 20 homers. Looking deeper into the stats, however, shows that Markakis hit 47 doubles. We expect Markakis to show greater power in 2009, with a season of .305-28-105-12 likely.

3. Evan Longoria

Longoria started the year in the minors, but began pummeling the ball after an early season call-up. To date Longoria has hit .278-25-82-7 in only 417 at-bats. Project that out to a full season, and you're talking about some serious offensive stats. Longoria is young, surrounded by other good, young hitters, and should only get better as he moves into his prime.

4. Kelly Shoppach

Shoppach has hit .268-21-55 in 396 at-bats. He routinely hit 20+ homers in less than 400 at-bats in the minors. If he gets 600 at-bats next season, 30 homers should be reachable. Beware, however, the possibility of a decline in batting average.

5. Denard Span

A virtual unknown before the season, Span has come on strong for the Twins. Most had expected Carlos Gomez to hold down the leadoff job for the year, but Span's .382 OBP% and 17 steals in only 322 at-bats convinced Ron Gardenhire to give him a shot in the role. Span has not disappointed, and has compiled a .298 BA, six homers and 42 rbi's to go with his impressive OBP%. If Span gets 600 at-bats in 2009, he could contend for the stolen base crown and should have a good batting average to boot.

Buying Low for 2009 - Pitcher's Edition

2008-09-17T12:57:00.002-04:00

A few days ago we posted some National League hitters who should exceed expectations in 2009 and be worth a lot more than they can be obtained for on draft day. Today, we examine NL pitchers that can be bought at a discount price and should exceed expectations in 2009.

1. Ricky Nolasco

Nolasco is well-known to fantasy ballers as a former top prospect who went down in flames in his first couple of seasons in the Bigs. But for many pitchers it takes a couple years to get adjusted to the majors (see Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, etc.) and Nolasco is no exception. He has put in a solid performance this year with a 3.56 ERA, 167 K's and 14 wins. His 1.12 whip is good for second best in the league, and perhaps his most impressive statistic is that he only has let up 176 hits in 192.1 innings pitched. Nolasco seems poised to follow up this breakout year with an even better campaign in '09.

2. Chad Billingsley

Okay, Billingsley is hardly an unknown. In fact, many people already consider Billingsley one of the best pitchers in the NL. So, why does he make this list? He makes it for a simple reason: He has improved every year and has such immense talent that the sky is the limit. This year he's already chalked up 15 wins, a 3.02 ERA and 189 K's. His hit-to-walk ratio is stellar, having allowed 169 hits in 188 innings. He gets into a bit of trouble with his control, which results in a medicore whip. Like Randy Johnson, Mark Langston and many others before him, as Billingsley's control improves, his numbers will become mindblowing. Especially if the Dodgers keep Manny Ramirez, Billingsley to challenge for 20 wins in 2009 with improvements in all other major pitching statistics.

3. Brett Myers

Many people thought that returning Myers to the rotation would result in a Cy Young worthy year in 2008. Alas, Myers struggled badly in the first half of the season and his velocity was down to little league levels. But Myers rebounded strongly in the second half and has been lights out for the past few months. Myers has lowered his ERA from over 6.00 to a very respectable 4.06. Add in the 10 wins and 157 K's, and Myers turned out to be a decent pitcher for those patient enough to keep him for the entire season. His end-of-the-year numbers, however, will fall well short of the top performers in the league, so he may be obtained at a considerable discount in 2009. A 3.50 ERA, 16 wins and 185 strikeouts is a reasonable early prediction for him in '09.

4. Dave Bush

This guy was a sleeper on everyone's list in 2007, and those teams unfortunate enough to draft him got nailed harder than Pam Anderson in her infamous Brett Michaels video. Bush was sent down to the minors to work on his mechanics, and returned to form after being called up midway through the '08 season. In a shortened season, Bush has a 4.24 ERA, 9 wins and 103 K's. It is his 1.15 WHIP (fifth best in the NL), however, that sets him apart. Few owners know about Bush, and fewer still are willing to gamble on him maintaining his performance in 2009. If you feel like rolling the dice, grab him. He could end up with a 4.10 ERA, 13 wins, 150 K's, and a 1.17 WHIP in '09.

Buying Low for '09

2008-09-15T16:35:00.002-04:00

With the '08 season winding down, it is never too early to begin looking at who may do even better next season. It is easy to pay top dollar for Pujols or Braun, and expect solid across-the-board stats. But most leagues are won or lost by the in-between players; the players who are nothing special but overperform everyone's expectations. Here are some of my early batting favorites for NL-only leagues in 2009:

1. Corey Hart

He's at .276-20-83-23, so many people already know about his talent. But what people may not realize is that he has 43 doubles, which indicates he still has a lot more home run potential as he matures. 30 homers is not an unreasonable expectation next year.

2. Stephen Drew

Drew was drafted with a lot of hype, but has generally underperformed expectations. At .281-17-58-3, he's having a solid, if unspectacular year. With 37 doubles thus far, however, it is likely that Drew could eclipse 25 four-baggers next season.

3. Lastings Milledge

Plagued by injuries and a lineup meeker than Ohio State's offense against USC, Milledge still has tons of potential. So far this year he has hit .262-14-57-22 in only 478 at-bats. Expect improvements in every category next season. A season similar to Corey Hart's 2008 year is not unlikely.

4. Jayson Werth.

Werth is one of the most underrated players in the league. He helps you in both the power and speeed categories, and hits for a respectable average. Next year he should get more playing time, which should enable him to dwarf his 2008 numbers. Currently, he's at .276-22-62-17, but in only 370 at-bats.

5. Elijah Dukes

After struggling in the early part of the season, this Nationals outfielder has quietly put together a good year in limited playing time. In only 242 at-bats, Dukes is hitting .273-11-39-13, with 16 doubles. Equally impressive is his .375 on-base percentage. If Dukes wins a starting job next spring, he has the power potential to hit 25 homers with a good number of steals too.

Value Watch

2008-06-28T08:32:00.003-04:00

By: Derrick Boyd

Outfield and Starting Pitcher are easily the deepest positions in Fantasy Baseball. In most leagues there is plenty of value available on the Waiver Wire at either of these positions, which eliminates the need for most of us to work hard and search for the value players. However, these days more and more of our fellow ‘Roto Geeks’ are opting for challenging 20 team leagues with deep rosters, or AL/NL specific leagues, rather than the typical, shallow 12 team public league. These deeper leagues test and stretch us by forcing each manager to lengthen their cheat-sheets and sharpen all aspects of baseball knowledge, including Minor and Major League depth charts.

Last week we discussed some Starting Pitchers that are less-known or undervalued and this week we will do the same with Outfielders.

1. Luke Scott – He’s quietly having a decent season. During the first month Scott hit a lot of doubles while recording a batting average over .280. During the second month those doubles turned into homeruns, but his batting average sunk lower than my retirement portfolio (*Sigh*). Overall he’s on pace for exactly what those of us who know anything about Luke Scott expected. Watch for him to continue on this pace and end up around .270/.350/.500 with 20-25 HR and 75-80 RBIs.

2. Lastings Milledge – Has shown signs of life recently (.294/.333/.471 over the last week) after struggling greatly the first 2 months of the season. Milledge is making contact as expected (82%) and his BB rate is right around where it should be (6% so far compared to 7% in 07). However, he has been a little unlucky with the percentage of the balls he has put in play that have fallen for hits, thus depressing his season batting average (.246). As this normalizes his batting average will get closer to .280 and I expect him to hit at least 10 more homeruns and steal at least 10 more bases this season, making him a good buy low target at this point.

3. Jason Kubel – Off to a slow start again this year, after many of us hoped that his strong 2007 2^nd half numbers (.303/.379/.511) would lead to the breakout season we’ve been waiting for, for what seems like an eternity. Maybe he’s just a slow starter? Although the surface stats don’t show it, Kubel has been improving over the last month. Over this period Kubel’s BB% is just above his 07 2^nd half level of 11.5% and his contact rate is a very solid 82%. Like Milledge, Kubel has suffered from an unlucky # of balls in play falling for hits, so the 0.238 batting average looks worse than it really should. Look for Kubel to heat up along with the weather this summer – a .270, 20 HR, 80 RBI season is still well within reach. Don’t give up hope just yet.

4. Randy Winn – Yeah I know, there is absolutely nothing exciting about Randy Winn. I’m even a bit bored writing this portion of the article, but I’m going to push through because I feel that I’d be doing a great disservice to the Fantasy Baseball populace if I neglected to give him mention. Winn has been a steady power/speed combo guy for many years now. He typically makes good contact and hits for good average – this season is no exception. At 33 years old, Win’s speed is still intact enough to make him a 20 SB threat. He still has double digit homerun power and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him finish .300, 15 HR, 20 SB.

4. Delmon Young – I’m still bullish on Young this season. Obviously this isn’t going to be his breakout year and anyone who thought it would be was misguided at best. Young is only 22 years of age – at 22 many of the elite prospects are still toiling away in the upper levels of the Minors, so just the fact that Young is here, playing everyday, and making consistent contact is somewhat impressive. While he has yet to hit a homerun this season he is far too talented to maintain this level of futility much longer. I’ve watched Young play a number of times this year and I’ve noticed that, for the most part, he’s hitting the ball to the opposite field. Once he starts pulling the ball he is going to get hot and makeup for this slow start. I’m willing to be bold and project that Young will finish the season with 10 homeruns and between 20-25 stolen bases. He’s been able to improve his contact rate from 80% last year to 83% this year which should help him finish the season with a batting average close to .280. This is a great time to buy low on Young, especially if the manager who owns him in your keeper league is getting tired of waiting for him to produce.

C'mon Baby, Let's Do the Splits

2008-05-27T17:01:00.001-04:00

By: Ben Distler

For many fantasy baseball owners, splits are something best left to ballerinas or, perhaps, Patrick Swayze. However, by digging deeper inside your player’s numbers, you can find that they excel in certain situation, while falling flat in others. Using this information, you can either maximize their potential for your own team, or use them to trade them away for full value. Here are some of the more glaring split stats in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard LHP SEA – 2008 stats: 3-3, 4.70 ERA 1.30 WHIP

At first glance, Bedard’s debut season in Seattle seems to be a dud. There’s a key phrase in the previous sentence: "in Seattle." While pitching at home, Bedard happens to have a stellar 1.69 ERA and miniscule 0.98 WHIP in four starts. His road stats were already awful, even before a 9 run shelling at Yankee Stadium on May 23rd. He currently sports an 8.84 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his four road starts. Bedard must have one of those fancy memory foam mattresses at home, and spends all night twisting and turning during road trips. Also, he sports a 2.14 WHIP against left handed hitters. So, if you see Bedard starting at home, put him in your lineup with no fear. If you see him starting on the road against a lineup with a lot of lefties, be sure to bench him for that outing.

Mark Reynolds 3B ARI – 2008 stats: .225 BA, 33 R, 8 HR, 29 RBI

Reynolds is making a great case for winning the statuette for the “Adam Dunn award for most frustrating fantasy line.” His power numbers are enticing, and he plays in Arizona, which is underrated as a launching pad for homers. However his 61 strikeouts in just 169 at bats this season puts him in the rarified air of Dunn and Ryan Howard (well, at least in terms of strikeouts…) But all is not lost for Reynolds. Turns out that he bats a healthy .289 at home, while shattering the Mendoza line at .151 on the road. Due to his .369 OBP at home, he’s scored 21 of his 33 runs in Arizona, and 18 of his RBI have come there as well. The HRs are split evenly, but if you have a second option at 3B, it may be worth starting Reynolds at home and subbing in the backup when he is away.

Brian Bannister RHP KCR – 2008 stats: 4-6 4.94 ERA 1.27 WHIP

Bannister has gone through great lengths to embrace sabermetric stats this past off season in order to improve his game. His basic conclusion was to issue less walks. I could have told him that one. Either way, I’m sure Bannister himself is staring at his split stats with just as much confusion as I am. Despite issuing only 6 walks on the road, Bannister is sporting a ridiculous 8.44 ERA and ugly 1.61 WHIP, en route to a 1-4 record. Back home in Kansas City, he has issued 9 walks but has just a 2.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Perhaps Bannister should consider issuing more walks? Another interesting tidbit, Bannister has almost the exact same ERA and WHIP splits in day and night games. While Bannister is on the cusp of completely unownable with his overall numbers, if you see him sitting there in the player pool, and he has a home, day game start coming up, you want to grab him.

Dan Uggla 2B FLA – 2008 stats: .318 AVG, 39 R, 16 HR, 37 RBI

As many owners in fantasy baseball have noticed, Uggla started out the season slow, batting .255 in April with just four homers. Thanks to a power surge, Uggla has crushed 12 homers so far in May to the tune of a .403 batting average. So, should you lucky Uggla owners hold onto him, thinking he’ll continue to play this way? Absolutely not. Sell Uggla right now for his top value. As it turns out, May just so happens to be Uggla's hottest month. He batted .307 in May last year and didn’t bat above .248 in any other month. For his career, he’s a .350 hitter in May, and doesn’t crack .267 in any other month (excluding 3 measly October at bats). The inevitable slide that brings Uggla back to the .260 range is coming, and when it does, don’t be the owner left holding the bag.

San Diego pitching in general

I’ve gone on and on about how spacious Petco Park is. Petco is bigger than Jim Belushi at the all you can eat buffet. Petco is bigger than Miley Cyrus’ ticket sales. I’m hoping these split stats will nail down the point once and for all. San Diego pitching as an entire unit has a 3.35 ERA at home, with a paltry 5.42 away ERA. Greg Maddux is pitching so well in Petco (1.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) that it makes him look like, well, Greg Maddux. (circa 1995). Jake Peavy, though currently on the DL, was putting up a 1.46 ERA and 0.86 WHIP at home versus 5.40 and 1.66, respectively, on away starts. Chris Young (at least before becoming a baseball magnet) is an ace at home, and a train wreck grease fire away. Even Randy Wolf, yes that Randy Wolf, has a 3.00 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home. His ERA nearly doubles on away games. If only San Diego could score any runs to support these pitchers, they’d be better than 11-14 at home. Then again, this overly spacious park hurt offense just as much as helps pitching. Adrian Gonzalez bats a superb .324 and has hit 9 of his 14 home runs away from this black hole death trap for offense. He plods along at just .237 inside it. If the stats you need to improve are ERA and WHIP though, make sure to dial up some San Diego pitching. Just don’t expect much in terms of wins.

FBAs: Week 5

2008-05-20T12:11:00.002-04:00

By: Russell Sandman

This past week in the National League, the changes atop the leader board were sweeping. While reigning NL fantasy MVP Hanley Ramirez continues to hold the top spot, new entries Lance Berkman has thrown his hat into the mix, ending the week with a whopping 16 long-balls. As the Major League’s only 8 game winner, Brandon Webb continues to out-pitch not only opponent batters, but other competitors for NL fantasy Cy Young. For the first time, Juston Upton was relegated to the bench in favor of projected NL fantasy Rookie of the Year finalist Joey Votto, whose 8 homers (3 of which came in the same game) top all major league rookies. Surprisingly, NL fantasy Relief Man of the Year candidate Brandon Lyon was catapulted from relative obscurity among stoppers to top contender, ousting Milwaukee’s on-again, off-again closer Eric Gagne from the top-spot.

In the American League, former Red turned Ranger Josh Hamilton went on a tear this past week to claim the top spot among AL contenders for fantasy MVP. Hard to believe that this is the same Josh Hamilton who was released by Tampa after numerous battles with substance abuse, but it appears Hamilton is for real, and his 10 homers and major league best 49 RBI certainly testify to his legitimacy. Matsuzaka continued his sophomore dominance among all AL starters, while Mo nudged aside Joe Nathan and all other AL closers to take the top spot among relief men. AL Rookie of the Year still remains wide open, so we expect more flip-flopping here than most other categories, but stay tuned for more as the season unfolds. Here’s how the leader board is shaping up so far:

National League
1. Fantasy MVP in 2008: Hanley Ramirez
i. Runners-up: Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, Pat Burrell, David Wright
2. Fantasy Cy Young in 2008 – Brandon Webb
i. Runners-up: Edinson Volquez, Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, Dan Haren, and Johan Santana
3. Fantasy Rookie of the Year – Joey Votto
i. Runners-up: Justin Upton, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, Kosuke Fukudome, Hiroki Kuroda
4. Fantasy Relief Man of the Year – Brandon Lyon
i. Runners-up: Brian Wilson, Matt Capps, Billy Wagner, and Kerry Wood

American League
1. Fantasy MVP in 2008: Josh Hamilton
i. Runners-up: Carlos Quentin, Kevin Youkilis, Nick Markakis, B.J. Upton, and Alexis Rios
2. Fantasy Cy Young in 2008 – Daisuke Matsuzaka
i. Runners-up: Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Zack Greinke, Joe Saunders, and Javier Vazquez
3. Fantasy Rookie of the Year – David Murphy
i. Runners-up: Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlain, and Clay Buchholz
4. Fantasy Relief Man of the Year – Mariano Rivera
i. Runners-up: Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, George Sherrill, Joakim Soria, Troy Percival

Closer? I hardly even knew her!

2008-05-12T09:10:00.000-04:00

By: Ben Distler

What is happening in the 9th inning lately? Can somebody please close out a game? It seems every time we turn around this season, another formerly reliable closer is giving up a late inning lead. If I wasn’t such a trusting soul, I’d say the steroid policies were finally starting to kick in, preventing pitchers from pitching with so little rest in between appearances. However, I’m a very naïve and trusting soul, so I know that has nothing to do with it. Regardless, the job of closer has never been more tenuous than it is now. This means we have to keep a close eye on not only the closers who are struggling, but their likely replacements. Let’s take a look at some of the struggling closers, and see who may be taking their place.

Jason Isringhausen – 5 blown saves
From 2001-2007, Izzy posted an ERA over 3.00 only once (a decent 3.55 in 2006), and usually was comfortably in the 2.50 area. So what in the world is causing his cartoonish 7.47 ERA this year? He actually removed himself from the closer’s role, because he was so disgusted with his performance. This doesn’t bode well for a mid-season rebound. It sounds more like the Izzy train may be derailed for good. Ryan Franklin is the guy who will get the lion’s share of the save opportunities, though Russ Springer may siphon a few off.
Verdict: Pick up Franklin if you need the saves, and don’t look back.

Eric Gagne – 5 blown saves
I personally blame Gagne’s 6.89 ERA and outrageous 1.85 WHIP on his terrible, haggard, ghastly, Dustin Diamond-esque beard. Seriously, how can you expect to handle major league hitters when you roll in looking like “Screech: The Later Years?” In hindsight, we should have all seen this coming when he single handedly tried to ruin the 2007 playoff run of the Boston Red Sox. And, not too surprisingly, he failed at that too. Just like with Izzy, Gagne may have run his course as a viable closer. Expect him to be more effective at starring in Celebrity Fit Club on VH1 rather than closing games. At the moment, it seems Guillermo Mota has the inside track to get most of the save chances, but he has a checkered past as a closer as well. Salomon Torres actually has the most experience and success as a closer, and I expect him to eventually take the job.
Verdict: Pick up Torres and dump Gagne for good.

Trevor Hoffman – 2 blown saves
With 530 career saves, it is hard to doubt Mr. Hell’s Bells himself. Similar to Izzy, Hoffman hasn’t posted an ERA above 3 from 2002-2007. Could it be that the 40 year old longtime closer is finally breaking down? While it is true that his K numbers are on the decline, his save totals are not, having posted save totals in the 40s the past 4 years. Also, his current 5.91 ERA is mostly the result of one bad outing April 2nd. He’s only given up 3 earned runs since then. Couple this with his home park, the ultra spacious Petco, and I think this point to at least one more useful, if not spectacular, season by the Hoff.
Verdict: If he were to fail, pounce on Heath Bell. Otherwise, hold tight.

Kerry Wood – 3 blown saves
Wood is a very interesting case. As we’ve learned in the past, Wood can be a real gamble. I think our best bet is to make a pros and cons list. Pro: He closes for a first place team, so he should have a lost of opportunity. Con: He’s injury prone. Pro: He has 17 Ks in 18 innings. Con: He has an ERA of 4.00. Pro: He has a WHIP of 0.78. An ERA/WHIP differential like that suggests one of two things: either he has had a run of bad luck, or he tends to leave a stick straight fastball right over of the middle of the plate. Seeing as he’s only given up one HR this year, I’m going to pronounce Wood’s closing job to be secure. With a WHIP that low (he’s only walked one batter all season), odds are that his ERA will gradually end up in at least the low 3 range. That being said, this IS Kerry Wood, who has practically made a career of getting injured, so make sure you have your eye on Carlos Marmol, who would most likely replace Wood
Verdict: Wood will get the ERA down and be a top 10 closer, provided he is healthy.

Whoever the heck the Braves closer is
The Braves haven’t actually blown that many saves this year. This could be because nobody can seem to stay in the role longer than a week or so. The Braves started with Rafael Soriano, whom they traded for last season, as their closer, thinking they had the position locked up. Well, of course he has been on the DL since April 7th with elbow problems, so they then turned to Peter Moylan. Moylan responded by throwing some seriously hard fastballs… and then tearing a ligament in his elbow and had to visit the dreaded Dr. James Andrews. Currently, the shoulder shrug that is Manny Acosta (and his headed for trouble 1.44 WHIP) occupies the role. He’s only keeping the seat warm until John Smoltz comes off the DL. Smoltz was a dominant closer in the past, but is only offering up his services to close again because his elbow is in such pain that he can’t take the rigors of starting any more. Can you feel the excitement? Considering the merry go round of injuries and ineffectiveness, not to mention the fact that the Braves are barely above .500 anyway, you probably have a better way to get some saves.
Verdict: Ride Smoltz if you can, but be prepared to see him break down at any moment.

First Rotisserie Baseball League

2008-05-08T10:39:00.001-04:00

There is an interesting article in Sports Illustrated's Vault about the formation of the first Rotisserie Baseball league. http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1122055/index.htm?eref=sihp

Enjoy.

On the Shelf: Jackpot!!!

2008-05-08T08:39:00.002-04:00

By: Dan King

The fantasy baseball writing gods are good to me. Honestly. I could quit my day job, hole up in my house for a week and rattle off like 53 articles on injuries that occurred in the last week and a half in the MLB. Problem is, if I wanted my day job back, I’d never get it back, and eventually end up homeless without a computer to write fantasy baseball injury articles. So I suppose I’ll be sticking to the once-a-week deal.

Before we get to the injuries, your FB101 update: as of Wednesday, we had a seven point lead over the rest of the pack… that’s right, first place Baby! I can honestly say that Lance Berkman, Dan Uggla, and Kevin Youkilis’ Sunday didn’t hurt – a combined 10-for-13 with three dingers, seven runs scored, and eleven RBI. Yeah, I know, Berkman is on fire, rated the number one fantasy player in Yahoo! mixed league formats. Also doesn’t hurt to have two of the top five fantasy pitchers either in Jonathan Papelbon and Carlos Zambrano. The demotion to Triple-A Iowa for Cubs pitcher Rich Hill doesn’t help my starting cause, but I was at least cautious and didn’t activate him for his last few starts. So let’s keep our fingers crossed for another string of good outings for the FB101 team….

Injury time!

John Smoltz: It was revealed via text message, TEXT MESSAGE, that the Braves starter is going to become the Braves closer when he returns from the DL from an inflamed biceps tendon and rotator cuff. No surgery is in the near future for Smoltz, but it may be speculated that with Smoltz’ return to the ‘pen for Atlanta, Rafael Soriano’s right elbow tendonitis may be worse that previously expected. Soriano cut short a bullpen session on Tuesday and had an MRI and other diagnostic tests planned for Wednesday. For those who bought high on Soriano in their drafts and then scrambled for either Peter Moylan or Manny Acosta, you may be out of luck. And speaking of Moylan, he is scheduled for surgery with Dr. James Andrews (uh, oh) to remove a bone spur in his pitching elbow, but Dr. Andrews may, in all likelihood elect to perform Tommy John surgery (read: “No Peter Moylan for 2008 or 2009.”)

Jimmy Rollins: Rollins is about just about ready to return to the Phillies lineup. He has shown no ill effects in his rehab starts and his ankle should be good to go this weekend.

Chone Figgins: Figgins strained his hamstring and has been working on a stationary bike to keep it loose. He hasn’t been running much and this may prove to be a big problem for a player who relies greatly on his speed. Monitor his progress before panicking, however.

Rich Harden: Harden, who was suffering from a strain below his throwing shoulder, threw six innings in a rehab start should be ready to go on Sunday. Might not be a bad idea starting him then, as the A’s have the Rangers for their weekend series this week. Justin Duchscherer pitched well in Harden’s place in the rotation and may be worth keeping on a few rosters if he continues to pitch well as a starter.

Alex Rodriguez: As a Red Sox fan, you could say that I’m a bit happy about this one. A-Rod claims that his strained quadriceps is good to go, but is not eligible to come off the DL for another week. It’s too bad though that he missed the birth of his second daughter… on second thought, maybe it’s good he did – saves the nurses extra work waking up the fainted guy.

Curt Schilling: The Big Schill actually threw this week. That’s a good thing for him. But like I said before, even if he comes back, I’m not picking him up, and neither should you.

Pedro Martinez: Speaking of aging pitchers, Pedro is getting ready to throw to live batters soon. Don’t get your hopes up too soon, but he may be back late May to early June.

Just a quick interlude here… did anyone else watch the Celtics/Cavaliers Game One Tuesday night? If Bron-Bron doesn’t turn things around, Cleveland’s not sticking around too long.
Alright… back to the injuries… that’s what you people don’t pay me for anyway…

Orlando Hudson: For all you people who picked up Hudson later on in your NL-only drafts (I’m raising my hand here), you may have to wait a bit for his steals to come around. The two-time Gold Glover had an MRI on his right hamstring and may be making a visit to the DL retroactive to some date earlier this week.

Noah Lowry: Dr. James Andrews (uh, oh) has instructed Lowry not to touch a baseball for four weeks. OK… nuff said.

Aramis Ramirez: Aramis missed three games before returning to the Cubs lineup on Tuesday with a sore wrist. Normally I wouldn’t worry about a sore wrist, but Ramirez is a power hitter, if his wrist doesn’t work properly, the power numbers dip accordingly.

Ryan Zimmerman: Zimmerman’s “Iron Man” streak of 205 games was broken when he asked for the day off on Sunday. Not really injured here, but is anyone ever going to get close to Cal Jr.’s record?

Josh Willingham: Willingham has been benched since the end of April with a lower back ailment. According to Willingham, “There's usually no rhyme or reason to when or where” which would indicate that he has no clue as to the cause or remedy of his back problem. He’s averaged 143 games over the past two years, so he should be back soon – if you’re in a pinch, Luis Gonzalez will be picking up Willingham’s extra AB’s.

Joe Borowski: The Indians closer is still nursing a triceps injury, but is getting closer to closing for Cleveland. Gotta say I’m thrilled though with Rafael Betancourt as a replacement.

J.J. Putz: Putz is back, but not in save situations quite yet for the Mariners. He has struggled finding the plate with his fastball, but with his ribs no longer being a problem, feel free to insert him back into your active lineups.

Jorge Posada: Told ya so folks. Posada’s earliest estimation for his return puts him about six weeks out. That’s a real long time for someone who has never been on the DL before in their career to regain their timing. As a Sox fan, I hate to say this, but if anyone is going to make it back quick, it’s going to be Posada, but Posada owners are going to have to be patient with his return.

That’ll do it for this week guys and gals. Happy Mother’s Day to all the Moms out there!

“I’m coming up, so you better get this party started”

2008-05-05T08:31:00.003-04:00

By: Ben Distler

Every year it seems a rookie call up decides the World Series. Last year, rookies Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury contributed just as much to the Boston Red Sox triumph as anything that Man-Ram and Big Papi did. In previous seasons this was a theme was well, with players such as the 2002 K-Rod, 2003 Dontrelle Willis, and the 2006 Adam Wainwright. The same can hold true for your fantasy team. In fantasy football, you can draft LaDainian Tomlinson and pretty much pencil yourself in for a playoff spot. In fantasy baseball, you can draft A-Rod with your first pick and it means absolutely nothing. If you can’t scan the waiver wire for the next big thing, you might as well not be playing. As an added bonus, you’ll always have an affinity for the midseason pickup who propelled you to the top. I still get misty eyes when I think of the Eric Gagne of old, and the mega rookies Liriano, Papelbon, and Braun. In order to help your fantasy team, you may want to write down the following names. (Stats as of 05/04/08)

Jeff Clement (SEA) – In the majors now
Clement was called up from the minors about a week before the team could have delayed his future entry into free agency. Not only that, but they cut Brad Wilkerson and his 3 million dollar guaranteed contract just to get Clement on the roster. All this points to Clement getting plenty of opportunity. With Jose Vidro batting the Mendoza line (.200), Clement should supplant him as DH sooner rather than later. As an added bonus, Clement may spell the struggling Kenji Johjima (batting a sub-Mendoza .190) at catcher. If Clement even produces slightly above average, he’ll be a great option at catcher. If he begins to fulfill his true potential, he could push your squad to a fantasy title.

Max Scherzer (ARI) – In the majors now
Arizona brought up Scherzer and intended to use him as a long reliever so he could get his feet wet. Well, that lasted all of one outing when Scherzer went 4.1 perfect innings with 7 Ks. It became apparent very quickly that this kid belongs in the rotation. He’ll get his first start on Cinco de Mayo against strikeout prone Philly, and it’ll be worth finding it on your MLB TV package in between margaritas and tequila shots. He has the potential to be the next Liriano, who as we all know, tore the league up in 2006. Drop your worst pitcher and go get Mad Max as soon as possible. Now if Arizona would just rename their stadium “Thunderdome”…

Jay Bruce (CIN) – ETA June
I have a theory that Corey Patterson has photos of manager Dusty Baker in compromising positions. This is probably how he managed to start in Chicago all those years, and now has a starting gig in the Queen City. Patterson is actually somehow managing to perform worse than his standard mediocrity, batting .202 with a .265 OBP. Sure, he can run, but as the old adage goes, you can’t steal first base. It is time to admit that he just isn’t that good, isn’t getting any better, and will always be the same Patterson he’s always been. Bruce however, is all upside. He’s batting .284 with 5 HRs in the minors. In the high school sized park that is Great American, he could end up with 25 or more home runs in an abbreviated season. Expect the Reds to be completely out of it by June, give up on Patterson, and call up “Bruce Almighty.” Pick up him the last week of May and make the other owners in your league angry.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – ETA mid-June
You have to love the NL West. Arizona (for as good as they are) is prone to strikeouts, Colorado is banged up, the Giants have a sub par offense, and the Padres play in a black hole of offense. With all the young pitching talent the Dodgers possess, it’d be crazy to continue to run guys like Hiroki Kuroda or Hong-Chih Kuo out there all season. They’re decent players, but they’re nothing compared to the potential of Kershaw. He’s a huge lefty at 6’3’’ and 220, and pushes the ball in the mid to high 90’s. He has a tiny 1.11 ERA in Double A (ignore the 0-3 record) and has a 36:11 K:BB ratio. He’s one of those prospects so talented that he may bypass triple A altogether. If you notice the Dodgers 4th and 5th starters starting to falter a big, see if you can pick Kershaw up and reap the benefits.

Homer Bailey – (CIN) – ETA July
Before we discuss the important things like his 2.29 ERA, how awful would it be to be named “Homer?” I’ve been watching the Simpsons for almost two decades now, and if there is any name more associated with ridicule and incompetence, I’d like to hear it. Besides George W. Bush, of course. However, Bailey is defying his namesake, and putting up incredible numbers in triple A. He currently has a 32:9 K:BB ratio, and his WHIP sits at a miniscule 0.99. Most relievers can’t muster a 0.99 WHIP, much less a starter like Bailey. He had a rough go at it in his September call up last year, but it seems it only served to season him more. As the Reds slip into their requisite mid-summer freefall, expect Homer “D’oh” Bailey to be called up and get an extended look.

Josh Fields – (CWS) – ETA August
The White Sox had a spectacular start to the season, but are starting to fade back into the pack in the competitive AL Central. As they slide further and further, more attention will be paid to Joe Crede. Crede has some good power numbers (7 HR, 22 RBIs), but is leaving a lot to be desired with his batting average, clocking in at .255. Also, since he is in the last year of his contract, with Scott Boras as his agent. If Boras can get Barry Zito a $126 million dollar deal, you have to believe he can spin Crede’s season into a price well beyond what the White Sox are willing to pay. Therefore, I expect them to deal Crede away before the trading deadline to a team that needs a boost at the hot corner. As a result, Fields would be in line for some late season at bats. While he’s not exactly killing the ball in triple A, he still has a lot of time to correct himself and contribute near the end of the season. If you’re on the South Side of Chi-town and you start hearing the rumors of Crede getting traded, it’s a perfect time to get Fields out of the pool, and get yourself a much needed boost, while messing over the Crede owner in the process.

Trading Strategies for the Beginning of the Season

2008-05-01T23:12:00.002-04:00

Strategy Session

Trading Strategies for the Beginning of the Season

By: Evan Rosen

One month into the season and I’m guessing you’re already dying to make a trade. After all, now that the draft is over, you need something to keep you off the streets and occupy your mind. Crafting deals and swindling opponents is half the fun of fantasy baseball. There is nothing better than addressing your team’s weakness through a well-timed trade. But when should you start trading? How should you go about it? I answer those questions and more in this week’s Strategy Session.

When to Start Trading
In last week’s article I stated that stats do not begin to matter until the first week of June. Therefore, as a general rule, I do not like making trades until June because it is difficult to truly evaluate your team’s strengths and weaknesses until then. For instance, if your team relies solely on Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes for steals, you’re probably at the bottom of the pack right now in that category. Does that mean you should trade for steals now? Hell no! With Rollins and Reyes on your team you’ll eventually be fine in steals.

But every general rule has its exceptions, and that applies here too. There are certain instances where trading, even as early as May 1, makes good sense. For example, if you know you are going to be weak in a category you should address it as soon as possible. If you have no closers (or backup closers) on your roster consider trading for one. It’s not like waiting until June is going to somehow magically transform a 1 in saves to a 6 or 7. Each day you wait allows your competitors to increase their lead in the category. Likewise, if you have a team full of power hitters and the only thing any of your players has stolen in the past 5 years was the heart of some unfortunate baseball groupie, you may want to trade for steals.

Know your team, address strengths and weaknesses, but do so with an eye toward how you expect your players to perform by seasons end – not how they are performing as of May 1. In other words, don’t do anything rash that you may regret later.

Buy Low, Sell High
The old adage about the stock market also applies to fantasy baseball. Take advantage of the skewed stats that appear in April. If you have Ryan Theriot, and can afford to give up his steals, now is a perfect time to trade him. He’s hitting .340, but last season his batting average was only .266. It is highly unlikely that he’ll finish the year at .290, let alone .340. Likewise, Ryan Dempster has 4 wins and a 3.16 ERA, but hasn’t had an ERA under 4.94 as a starting pitchers since the year 2000. You can capitalize on Theriot and Dempster’s great start by trading them now before their stats return to career norms.

Sometimes you don’t even need to wait for a few weeks accumulation of stats. Depending on the sophistication of your league members, if a player has one good game you can try trading him immediately. For example, in the early 1990’s, Lloyd McClendon was called up from the minors to play for the Pittsburgh Pirates and immediately hit a grand slam. I picked up McClendon, talked up his grand slam and his impressive minor league history (before the internet so my opponent could not verify) and traded him for Brett Butler, the early 90’s version of Juan Pierre. Similarly, if someone hits for the cycle, pitches a no-hitter, or hits three or more homers in a game, you may be able to parlay that one day of performance into a better player.

Addressing Strengths & Weaknesses
One theme of my forthcoming articles on trades will be to not only analyze what your team needs, but to also determine in what categories your potential trading partners are weak. This may sound obvious, but too many fantasy baseball owners fail to take their opponent’s weaknesses into account when crafting trades. Instead, they’ll offer Chone Figgins for Aramis Ramirez and justify it by saying, “it’s a fair trade.” But if the team you’re offering Figgins to already has Michael Bourne, Jose Reyes, and Brian Roberts, he won’t need Figgins’ steals.

The better approach is to find a team who needs help in a category in which your team is strong. In return, you should seek players that will address your weaknesses. If you are strong in homers and saves, but weak in wins and steals, you should look for a trading partner with the inverse of your own strengths and weaknesses. Trade your homers and saves to a team that needs help in those categories, and in return get wins and steals to address your areas of concern.

How to offer a trade
Many fantasy baseball owners make official trade offers on their league’s home page and wait to see if the other owner accepts it. No offense, but this is a terrible idea. What if you forget you have an official trade offer outstanding and a player’s status changes during that time? In other words, what if you made an offer for Rafael Soriano before he got injured and forgot to rescind the offer? The other team would be within his or her rights to accept the deal – especially since you offered it. You’d end up with a player who is on the disabled list! Likewise, Brian Fuentes was recently named the closer for the Rockies. If you offered Brian Fuentes to someone last week and did not rescind it quick enough, you’d be out a closer.

The better technique is to e-mail your fellow owners with proposals. Then, after they’ve agreed in principle to the deal, you officially propose it on the league website. This avoids the problem outlined above. It also gives you a chance to explain the trade, which is imperative.
Whenever making a deal be sure to provide a concise, bullet point, explanation highlighting the benefits for the owner. For example, let’s assume you’re offering Nate McLouth for Chipper Jones. You might say something like this:

“This deal will help both our teams. Even though McLouth is not as big a name as Chipper, he’ll end up helping you more from a fantasy perspective. Here’s why:

1. McLouth is a 5 category player – he’ll get you 20+ homers and 20+ steals.
2. In limited playing time last season (only 329 at-bats) McLouth hit 13 homers.
3. McLouth was a top prospect and dominated the minors. (30+ steals with developing power from 2003 - 2005)
4. Already this year, McLouth is off to a great start – .330-7-25-2
5. Chipper is a great player, but you need steals which he won’t provide. Plus, he gets injured every season and hasn’t reached 600 at-bats since 1998.
6. I hate giving up McClouth, especially for an injury prone player, but I need a third-basemen and have xyz outfielder on my bench to replace McLouth.”

This explanation increases the odds that the deal will get done. First, it highlights McLouth’s value, making the other owner more likely to want him. Second, it knocks Chipper’s value. It raises a chief concern inherent in owning Chipper – that he may get injured. Third, it explains why you are willing to do the deal. A normal person would say, if you think McLouth is so valuable and Chipper’s such a risk, why are you willing to do the deal? What trick do you have up your sleeve? Don’t wait for these questions – address them in your initial e-mail. Of course, the way McLouth is going he really could have a better season than Chipper!

Use these tips and you’ll improve your team in no time.

More Trade Analysis

2008-05-01T10:01:00.005-04:00

Trade mediations (http://fantasybaseball101.com/Trade_Mediator.html) have been among our most popular offerings at fantasybaseball101.com in the early going. While the trade itself may not provide interest to the reader we hope for two things: 1) our analysis sheds light on aspects of a player that you may not have considered and 2) the response gives insight into how other leagues establish guidelines for proper trades.

Again, in blue is the trade request and in red is our response:

Team A would receive: Ryan Howard, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt and Gil Meche

Team B would receive: Álex Ríos, Justin Upton, Tim Lincecum and Joe Nathan

We also offer this tidbit from the mediating requestor (Team A): "Tell me this is not one of the worst trade offers you have seen fora keepers league."

Well we let him know what he wanted to hear, and encouraged him not to make the trade:

Agreed, the person who offered you that trade would have a monster of a team in the upcoming years and pretty handily wins the trade for this season too. Seems to be that they are trying to get you to be swayed by Howard (the best player in the trade this year, and possibly the next 1 or 2) and the fact that Betancourt will be getting some saves in the near future.

Of course, reviewing this response again, one had to wonder: When, when will Howard resume being the Howard of '07? If someone gives up on Howard, then grab him cheaply... but don't take him as the centerpiece of a deal where you have to give up as much as team A is being asked to give up.

If you have any questions of your own... please find us at http://fantasybaseball101.com/Trade_Mediator.html.

Thanks,
Joe

On The Shelf: We're Baaaaack...

2008-04-28T21:57:00.002-04:00

By: Dan King

“Finally”, you say after a 3 ½ week hiatus, On the Shelf is back for more MLB injuries and their fantasy relevance. I quite honestly have no excuses other than the fact that I have been fixed to my television set (yeah, yeah, it’s a 50” plasma, but “set” just sounds better) watching my Boston Bruins (yeah, yeah, it’s baseball season, but I can still watch hockey) get my hopes up, only to mercilessly crush them after losing to Montreal last week. I think a week in mourning is enough.

One quick note on the ongoing Roger Clemens “saga”… Roger, get on a plane, go to Bora Bora with the whole family, and don’t come back for six months. Seriously, get out of Dodge. Get a tan, go snorkeling, deep-sea fishing, ANYTHING! I’d much rather be on ESPN.com reading about <> the NBA playoffs than anything Roger Clemens – it’s irrelevant and ridiculous. We all like a good juicy drama once in a while, but this is Britney Spears/Amy Winehouse drama.

Anywho, on to baseball, and on to our injury report:

John Smoltz: The Braves hurler reported that he was having shoulder soreness during his start this past Sunday – this could be bad news for Smoltz owners as he is getting long in the tooth (read: getting old) and a little soreness now could mean a lot later. Monitor the situation, but don’t go dropping Smoltz quite yet.

Jimmy Rollins: J-Roll is eligible to come off the DL next Monday, but was having his ankle re-evaluated today. He’s still a top three SS in fantasy land; just make sure he’s been activated before putting him in your starting line-up.

Jorge Posada: Posada was placed on the 15-day DL Sunday due to a slight tear in a muscle in his right shoulder. It’s Posada’s first trip to the DL in his entire career, so this injury could be more serious than first thought. A reasonable pickup off the waiver wire to replace him would have to be Jose Molina, of the infamous Molina Brothers catching clan – he’s going to have to be, as Molina is the only other catcher the Yankees had on the roster as of Monday.

Bengie Molina: Speaking of the infamous Molina Brothers catching clan, Jose’s older brother has been sitting out the past couple of games due to general soreness in his legs. Needless to say, a catcher in the NL with general soreness in his legs can’t DH, so, Bengie has been riding some pine lately.

Aaron Rowand: Bengie Molina’s San Fran teammate took a fastball to the ribs on Sunday – X-ray results were negative, so don’t despair, Rowand will be back in the anemic Giants lineup soon enough.

Justin Upton: The younger Upton brother sat out the D-backs game this past Sunday with what manager Bob Melvin explained to be “either kind of a deep cramp or a real mild strain.” Frankly, I’ve never heard of a “deep cramp,” so let’s assume that Upton’s injury is a strain. The speed numbers may be slightly down over the next few weeks as Upton’s hamstring heals up.

Scott Kazmir: The Rays (God forbid I write “Devil Ray”) ace is expected to rejoin the team this coming weekend after making his final rehab start on Monday. His elbow should be good to go for activation off the DL this weekend.

Scott Rolen: The new Blue Jay 3B recently came off the DL to provide Alex Rios some protection in the batting order. Let’s face it, with Frank Thomas gone, Rolen is going to have to be big in the Toronto lineup if they are going to compete in the AL East.

Mike Jacobs: Jacobs sprained the middle finger on his right hand when he fouled a ball off at the plate. He is considered day to day, but may eventually need a stint on the DL to heal up completely. If he’s still available, Wes Helms will provide capable backup at your 1B/CI position, particularly in NL-only leagues.

Joe Borowski: The Indians’ closer has been suffering from a strained triceps muscle and will not be available until at least mid-May. Rafael Betancourt is the Cleveland closer of the future (and apparently present) and is a must pick-up in all formats.

David Ortiz: Big Papi has sat out the past two games with a bruised right knee. I can’t say I’m not skeptical of Ortiz’ recent absence from the Red Sox lineup, as they’ve lost five straight, but I hope for Boston’s sake that Ortiz’ injury isn’t more severe than just a bruise. He hasn’t been the same hitter in 2008 as he has been over the past three years, and it shows – I hate to say it, but bench him until he starts to turn things around.

Nomar Garciaparra: The son of Ramon Garciaparra is injured once again. Anyone… anyone… Bueller… Bueller…. Nomar tweaked his calf on Friday’s game and has paved the way for Blake DeWitt’s recall to the Dodgers at 3B. Grab him if you can.

Alfonso Soriano: Speaking of oft-injured superstars, Soriano is currently rehabbing his calf and is scheduled to come off the DL on Thursday. Make sure he is active before inserting him into your lineup. He’ll provide a nice boost to a Cub roster that has held its own in Soriano’s stead.

Ben Sheets: Does this look like a trend to you? Sheets threw a bullpen session and felt good. The Brewers starter is slated to pitch in Tuesday’s game against the Cubs. If I owned Sheets, I’d keep him benched for this upcoming tilt against Chicago; the Cubs bats are just consistently too good to be bringing in Sheets for his first start post-injury.

FB101 league update time!

We’re holding steady in 3^rd place, only 6 points behind the league leader. Recently drops and additions have been Mark Lowe for Rafael Betancourt, the new Indians closer as well as Jeremy Accardo for Doug Brocail. It was rumored that Brocail may be in line for the Houston closing job if Jose Valverde falters, so let’s keep our hopes up for that. Frankly, I’m shocked that Betancourt was available, but we got him – now he just needs some save opportunities. Frankly, a few bum outings from Tom Gorzelanny and Accardo haven’t helped, along with “slumping” Jose Reyes and Ichiro Suzuki, we’re in pretty good shape heading into May I’d say.

Until next time...

FBAs Week 4

2008-04-27T17:02:00.005-04:00

By: Russell Sandman

National League

1. Fantasy MVP in 2008: Hanley Ramirez

i. Runners-up: Chase Utley, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Pat Burrell, and Derek Lee

2. Fantasy Cy Young in 2008 – Brandon Webb

i. Runners-up: Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, Dan Haren, and Johan Santana

3. Fantasy Rookie of the Year – Justin Upton

i. Runners-up: Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Kosuke Fukudome, Hiroki Kuroda, and Joey Votto

4. Fantasy Relief Man of the Year – Brad Lidge

i. Runners-up: Brian Wilson, Jason Isringhausen, Matt Capps, Kerry Wood, and Billy Wagner

American League

1. Fantasy MVP in 2008: Casey Kotchman

i. Runners-up: Manny Ramirez, Carlos Pena, Nick Markakis, B.J. Upton, and Carlos Guillen

2. Fantasy Cy Young in 2008 – Cliff Lee

i. Runners-up: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chien-Ming Wong, Ervin Santana, Zack Greinke, and Javier Vazquez

3. Fantasy Rookie of the Year – Clay Buchholz

i. Runners-up: Joba Chamberlain, David Murphy, and Nick Blackburn

4. Fantasy Relief Man of the Year – Jonathan Papelbon

i. Runners-up: Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, George Sherrill, Joakim Soria, Mariano Rivera

This week in the National League saw the resurgence of 2007’s pick for fantasy NL MVP, Hanley Ramirez. So much for the effects of shoulder surgery and an offensively anemic supporting cast on Han Ram’s performance. No change atop the leader board for fantasy NL Cy Young or fantasy NL Rookie of the Year. But, fresh off of rehab after another knee surgery, Brad Lidge has emerged as a credible candidate for fantasy NL Relief Man of the Year.

Results in the American League represented a shakeup of leaders almost across the board. Relative unknown Casey Kotchman took the top spot among contenders for fantasy AL MVP, while surprise fantasy AL Cy Young Award candidate Cliff Lee appears to have made significant strides toward regaining his 2005 form. Clay Buchholz and Jon Papelbon once again regained top spots among contenders for fantasy AL Rookie of the Year and Relief Man of the Year, respectively.

Tune in for more coverage of the FBA’s next week!

Breakout Watch

2008-04-26T00:03:00.002-04:00

By: Ben Distler

I’m sure we’ve all dumped a girlfriend way too early and seen her blossom into a beautiful young woman, slapping ourselves for letting her go. I know how this feels. Not because I dumped a girl though. No, I’m speaking of the time I dropped Jim Thome in 2002 after the first few weeks. I was a young rapscallion back then, always looking for the next best thing, and his .192 average just wasn’t cutting it. I was new to the game of love… er, I mean, fantasy baseball, and certainly learned my lesson when he hit 52 home runs that season. In some ways, I’ll never quite get over that. Hopefully I can impart some of my experience to help you from making this heartbreaking mistake.

Speaking of Thome, let’s first discuss the man who pushed him out of Philly, Ryan Howard. A slugging lefty just like Thome, he also shares his propensity for slow starts. As of April 20^th, Howard has an anemic .182 average to go with his 9 R/4 HR/9 RBI line. For someone hitting in a home park roughly the size of my backyard, I can see where this would be cause for concern. There are a few other factors going into this lackluster performance, however. Howard got off to a similar slow start last year, and went on to hit 47 home runs. In fact, Howard is only a career .241 hitter in April. Last year’s MVP, Jimmy Rollins, has been in and out of the lineup with various tweaks and pulls, which means Howard sees much fewer good pitches to hit. Once Rollins gets back in the lineup for good, and the weather starts to heat up, these struggles will seem like a distant memory and you can fully enjoy the 3/4, 2 HR nights. Expect 40 homers and 120 RBI as a minimum, with a .275 average when it’s all said and done.

Slow Aprils are nothing new to Ichico Suzuki either. April is by far his worst month over this career, barely mustering up a .296 average. While that may sound pretty good, he has no other month over the course of his career where he bats less than .319. This alone should keep him in your good graces. As an added bonus, though, I expect Ichiro to eclipse his total of 37 stolen bases in 2007. Last year, Ichiro had a caught stealing streak going, and was too conscious of trying to extend it. I expect him to break 40 again this year, further boosting his value with the .330 average you just know is right around the corner.

I’m typically pretty high on San Diego Padres pitchers. My fantasy rosters have more Peavys than your local garage band (musician joke… moving along), and I’ve heard rumors that some outfielders get lost and never return in the vast wilderness that is Petco Park. Then why is the 6’10’’ beast that is Chris Young sitting on a 4.57 ERA and 1.62 WHIP? The answer is because it is almost the exact same way he started out last season. Last year, he gave up 3 HRs in the first month of the season, and this year he’s given up the same amount. The real important part is that over the next three months of the 2007 season, he gave up exactly one home run. That’s right, one. So even if he does three times as bad as last year over the coming months, he’ll still have only given up 1 home run per month. I believe those are number I can live with. His strikeout numbers are healthy (7.06 K/9) and close enough to his career numbers (8.05 K/9) to suggest that if he can overcome what looks like some minor elbow issues, he’ll start to put up his monster midsummer roto numbers again.

I’m sure it’s hard for anyone to get excited about an 0-3 pitcher with a 6.14 ERA, but Chad Billingsley may just be the most exciting pitcher with those numbers of all time. Sure, he’s young but he comes loaded with more talent than “Mind of Mencia” is loaded with unfunny jokes. And believe you me, in both cases, that is a shocking amount. He already has 20 Ks in just 14 1/3^rd innings. He plays in a park that is pretty conducive to pitching. He has a lineup around him that, while struggling at the moment, should be able to give him appropriate run support. He plays in a division with gigantic Petco Park, and the so-bad-its-funny San Francisco Giants. Even the up and coming Diamondbacks have a tendency to strike out a ton (Mark Reynolds anybody?). So while right now Billingsley is getting knocked around, he has the potential to become an ace. Not just in future years, but this year too. Feel free to bench him until he get his BBs under control (11 so far this year), but once he does, he’s going to be absolutely dealing, mowing down hitter after hitter in an iffy NL West.

But of course, there are times when dumping a player based on his April stats might be warranted. Much has been made about the struggles of C.C. Sabathia, not only on the mound, but at his weekly Weight Watchers meetings as well. Try as he might, he just can’t resist that cookie dough blizzard at Dairy Queen. All jokes aside, this guy has to be pushing 3 bills, and that’s just not terribly acceptable for a professional athlete. The last pitcher I can remember being truly successful at that weight would be David Wells, and we know what a train wreck he was at some point in his career. In addition to his lackluster conditioning, Sabathia dealt out 256 1/3^rd innings last year, counting the playoffs. That’s enough to wear out even the most fit pitchers in the game, much less our plump and portly friend from Cleveland. Since his K/9 numbers don’t really blow you away (7.31 K/9), and his WHIP is becoming more bloated than him after a night at the sizzler (1.28 career), he can really eat you alive in a roto league with an innings limit. I would advise benching him until he strings together a few quality starts, and dealing him away for what you can get. Can you imagine how dead his arm might be in the 100 degree summers, having pitched roughly 380 innings in the last season and this one combined? And also, with him knowing full well that the sooner he is pulled from the game, he can make a McDonalds run? I for one don’t want to be a part of that.

So remember to practice a little bit of patience when it comes to your slow starting stars. It’s just like any relationship you have – you got to take the good with the bad. Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and giving up too early one someone could have you looking back on 52 Jim Thome bombs wondering, “what if?”

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

2008-04-25T23:57:00.003-04:00

By: Drew Volturo

Oh, I’m sorry, did I disturb you? You looked so peaceful, but I had to let you know:

Your fantasy baseball team is in last place.

In the professional world, falling asleep on the job can get you fired. In the roto world, falling asleep at (or better yet, away from) the computer can land your team in the cellar. This is a challenge for anyone who has a packed work, personal and social schedule – I wish I could say it was all three that were chock-full, but I don’t want to start lying to you. Moving homes while working is stressful enough, and by the time you get settled down for the night, sometimes the last thing you want to do is check the Web and do a midnight session of add/drop.

But neglecting your teams can lead to disaster. I plummeted from #2 to #7 in my 10-team NL-only league in a week, with two players (Tom Glavine and Peter Moylan) landing on the DL and another (Jayson Nix) hitting so far under the Mendoza line that he might need a ladder to see it again. Rather than hitting the “panic” button, I calmly benched Nix and picked up Kip Wells and Hong-Chih Kuo (it’s a very deep NL-only league). Other than that, I did nothing.

Nothing. I didn’t bench Bill Hall for hitting .200. I didn’t dump Moylan because he’s possibly facing Tommy John surgery (I’ll wait the week and see what happens with the stretching and exercising routine). I haven’t shopped Jose Valverde because his ERA looks more like a meeting time for lunch (12.27) than a dominant closer’s earned run average. It’s not time to hit the panic button. Evan has a great piece up (When Do Stats Begin To Matter: March 19, 2008) about how fantasy baseball owners never fail every season to detect an early April trend and pounce, most disastrously dropping proven players who are off to a slow start in favor of the next hot thing – which then promptly cools off.

So while I fell asleep at the wheel this past week, that doesn’t mean I am waving the white flag. It’s far too early to start ceding anything to anyone. And even though I’m stuck in the second division (does anyone even get that pre-1969 reference? I was born 8 years after divisional play began and I still get it), that doesn’t mean that you can’t come roaring back with some well-placed posts on your discussion board to get your creative juices flowing and hopefully get something started.

Rule #32: Blatant thievery is so good, no cop would ever turn you in.

If you have an active league (and I sincerely hope you do), chances are that another team out there has a catchphrase or something they throw out there often in their posts. This is a perfect opportunity to pounce.

For example, a team owner in my league loves to close his e-mail with “FEAR THE TURTLE! AAAARRRRGGGGHHHH!” because his alma mater’s mascot is the University of Maryland terrapin. (Don’t look at me, my college mascot was a Fighting Blue Hen, but I don’t run around clucking at my opponents.) Anyway, I was closing out a post and started to repeat his closing, cutting it off mid-sentence: “FEAR THE TUR… oh wait, that sucks.” I then closed it off with a one-liner that should have insulted everyone’s manhood, but it did the trick. It’s early, and I’m a slow-starter when it comes to discussion board posting. Just wait until June.

Sound stupid? I’m setting my stopwatch for how long it’ll take before that team responds with something that I can use against him and jumpstart things on the boards. And nothing cures fantasy baseball insomnia like a discussion board that is alive and kicking with posts you can’t wait to read. If that happens, you can damn sure bet I won’t let a week go by without checking the league again.

First Week Impressions: NL Edition

2008-04-24T21:58:00.001-04:00

By: Ed Sul

Since the first week reflections given last week were just for AL teams, these are basically two-week reflections for the NL teams. Even still, it is too early in the season to make any reasonable decisions about whether a .500, 4 homer, 15 RBI start will continue that way for the entirety of the season, or if you should drop your No. 3 pitcher after a horrendous 0-2, 8.98 ERA start. But here are some thoughts after two weeks.

Atlanta Braves

The rotation is solid early on in the season. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, both from the Mesozoic Era, are still putting up solid numbers and are worthy No. 2 starters on fantasy teams. Tim Hudson’s 12 strikeouts to 2 walks with an ERA under 3 is very encouraging, and give rookie Jair Jurrjens a chance. He is 1-2, but his ERA is under 4, and he has a promising future. The bullpen is a mess for now, so don’t look there for any relief help, although when Rafael Soriano comes off the DL, he would be the only one with much fantasy value.

Chipper Jones is having a monster start, batting over .400 with 10 or more runs and RBIs. Yunel Escobar is batting .333 with 2 homers, 9 RBIs, and 11 runs as a full-time starter this year, so he is looking like a potential No. 1 fantasy shortstop on any team. Meanwhile, Brian McCann and Jeff Francoer have displayed their power early on, with three homers each, and their batting averages are not too bad either. Mark Teixeira is struggling, with a batting average under .200, but don’t be too concerned if you have him.

New York Mets

Nobody knew who he was when the season began, but now, you better keep an eye on Angel Pagan. He has no homers, but is batting nearly .400 with 9 runs and 10 RBIs. Don’t pick him up yet, because once Moises Alou returns from the DL, Pagan might become a reserve again. Another outfielder who has no homers is Carlos Beltran, which is baffling. His value has dipped over the years, but he is still a respectable No. 3 outfielder on a fantasy team. Meanwhile, David Wright is off to a huge start, batting .311 with 4 homers and 15 RBIs. (Beltran has actually hit his first homerun very recently but only one in three weeks?)

Johan Santana is 1-2, that does not mean much, as his 18 strikeouts to 4 walks and an ERA a shade over 3 shows. John Maine and Oliver Perez are mediocre, but somewhat valuable, pitching options on a fantasy team. Keep an eye on Mike Pelfrey, however, as the youngster has gone 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. He doesn’t strike out many, though.

Philadelphia Phillies

Pat Burrell is off to a huge start, batting .349 with five homers and 15 RBIs. We expect those stats to decline though, so if you have plenty of outfielders and have a glaring hole in your team, think trade bait with Burrell. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are both meeting expectations with their starts, but Ryan Howard is struggling. He still has three homers, but his batting average is below .200. He is still a No. 1 fantasy first baseman for teams, but he does not seem to quite be Albert Pujols.

Cole Hamels has an ERA under 1 in three starts and has the stuff to be a No. 1 fantasy starter on most teams. The rest of the rotation is mediocre, and if any of them are on your team, don’t be too excited for any of them. But it is hard to say at this point whether they should be dropped period. Brad Lidge is doing well as a closer, with two saves in five innings and an ERA of 0, while Tom Gordon has completely lost his flash.

Florida Marlins

Scott Olsen is having a good start, and he is probably the only Marlins starting pitcher worth having on your fantasy team. If you have any other Marlins starter, just drop him for better option. And yes, that includes Andrew Miller, as the one-time top prospect is struggling with an ERA above 11, although his 15 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings is encouraging. If you want to keep Miller, fine, because he will be a star one day, but don’t expect him to reach his potential anytime soon.

Who is Mike Jacobs? He has five homers already, while maintaining a great batting average (.320). I don’t know if he is available in many leagues, but if he is, definitely pick him up. He should be a household name soon. Besides Jacobs, nobody has really been too surprising. Hanley Ramirez is putting up MVP-like numbers already again, Dan Uggla is hitting for decent power, but his average stinks, and young outfielders Josh Willingham and Jeremy Hermida are out to respectable starts, making them worthy No. 4 outfielders on your fantasy team. There is a mess at center field right now, but just wait for Cameron Maybin to be called up, and then acquire him.

Washington Nationals

John Rauch has been terrible as temporary closer, but that issue should be solved with Chad Cordero coming back to close. Rauch owners should just get rid of him now. The rotation, like Rauch, is a mess. Tim Redding and Matt Chico are off to encouraging, but not eye-popping, starts, so don’t jump on the bandwagon just yet.

Christian Guzman is off to a .333-2-6 start with 10 runs scored. He probably won’t be as good at the end of the season, but do get him if he is available. He will fill in nicely as a reserve or middle infielder on your team. The only other hitter with any value for now is Ryan Zimmerman, and he is off to a slump to start the year. But do get Lastings Milledge if he is available, because he looks promising as a starting outfielder.

Chicago Cubs

Alfonso Soriano is likely headed to a DL, which is just insult to injury (or injury to insult?) after his .175 average in 13 games. On the other hand, Kosuke Fukudome has only one homer, but he is batting a solid .333 with 8 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 steals, showing his respectable all-roundedness. Rookie Geovany Soto and Mark DeRosa are off to quick starts, but only Soto really has any value, as we expect DeRosa’s numbers to decline. Aramis Ramirez is batting for a low average (.231), but his three homers haven’t made us too disappointed about his start yet. Derrek Lee’s start, meanwhile, is flat out amazing, with fiver homers, 12 RBIs, 11 runs, all with a batting average over .350.

Carlos Zambrano has 18 strikeouts to 2 walks is just nasty, and Ryan Dempster has been a surprise with a 2-0, 2.37 start to the season. Be careful before picking up the inconsistent Dempster, however. Meanwhile, give Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and Rich Hill a couple more starts before dropping any of them. Also, Carlos Marmol owners should just pray that Kerry Wood struggles, because Marmol, who has 12 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings and a 1.74 ERA, will be one of the top closers in fantasy if Wood loses his job.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals use five outfielders – Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan, and Brian Barton – regularly, which diminishes the value of all of them. If I was to choose one guy that you should pick up, it would be Ankiel, who has four homers and 11 RBIs while batting over .300. Schumaker also plays more than the others, but his lack of power decreases his value. Ludwick has good power, but he needs to get consistent playing time before anyone can take him seriously.

With Clement, Mulder, and Carpenter on the DL, it was hard to like anyone of the Cardinals’ rotation whose name wasn’t Adam Wainwright, but for the most part, the Cardinal pitchers have done very well. Kyle Lohse has a 1.04 ERA, and Braden Looper is 3-0 with an ERA well under 3. Todd Wellemeyer’s ERA is a modest 4.00, but he has 20 strikeouts. A lot to like about the Cardinals starters, and it is tempting to pick them all up, but wait a few more starts to see how they can really do.

Milwaukee Brewers

Prince Fielder is in a huge slump, with a .222 batting average along with 0 homers. Is Fielder a one-year wonder? You can’t help but think that until Fielder can break out of his slump. On the other hand, it is hard to call Ryan Braun’s .226 start a slump on the same level as Fielder’s, as he does have three homers. Braun’s average should rise over the season. The feel-good story right now is Gabe Kapler, who has a .423 average complemented by four homers. Kapler may be a short-term solution in the outfield, but his value will diminish as Mike Cameron returns from suspension.

Other than Ben Sheets, who is posting Cy Young-esque numbers with a 2-0 record, a 1.17 ERA, and twenty strikeouts, no one else in the rotation is worth anything. Wait until Yovani Gallardo returns from injury, and then he will be worth picking up to help your pitching staff. Eric Gagne is settling down, but you can’t help but think he is on a short leash with David Riske, Salomon Torres, and Derrick Turnbow setting up nearby.

Houston Astros

Youngsters Hunter Pence, J.R. Towles, and Michael Bourn are struggling to open the year in terms of average, which are .170, .207, and .216, respectively, but you have to like Pence’s first half of 2007, Towles’ three homers, and Bourn’s seven stolen bases. Meanwhile, stars Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Miguel Tejada have not disappointed to open their seasons.

Roy Oswalt is 0-3 with an ERA of 9.00. This is definitely a concern, but we have to expect him to perform better. Shawn Chacon and Brandon Backe, meanwhile, are off to pretty good starts, each with ERAs of 2.25. Their 10+ walks are a concern, however, as their lack of control might signal a spike in ERA sooner or later. Wandy Rodriguez might be worth a look, however, as he has a 2.33 ERA with 19 strikeouts and just 2 walks to open the year.

Cincinnati Reds

Johnny Cueto has 24 strikeouts and one walk. Amazing, right? Not so fast. Cueto has done worse every start, so his value will continue to decline back to mediocrity. Someone probably has jumped on the Cueto bandwagon already, but if he is somehow available in your league, wait a couple more starts to see who the real Johnny Cueto is. Same goes for Edinson Volquez, who has a 0.87 ERA in just over 10 innings of work.

Brandon Phillips and Ken Griffey Jr. are doing okay to start this season, as those two and Adam Dunn were really the only three Reds’ batters with any fantasy value whatsoever. No one ever has high expectation for Dunn in terms of average, but his one homer thus far is unacceptable. Meanwhile, Jeff Keppinger has exceeded all expectations, as he has two homers, nine RBIs, eight runs, and a .327 batting average. He is worth picking up at the moment, but who will start at shortstop when Alex Gonzalez returns? Keep an eye on that.

Pittsburgh Pirates

I said before the season to avoid Zach Duke at all costs. Now, try to get him at all costs. Well, not all costs, but he does seem to offer quality value with his 2.89 ERA in nearly 19 innings of work. Other than Duke and ace Ian Snell, don’t bother with the Pirates’ rotation.

Nate McLouth has a .391 average, 2 homers, 12 runs, 14 RBIs, and two stolen bases. It is only two weeks in, but I am sold on McLouth and will convince you to definitely get him if he is not yet already gone. Xavier Nady is also off to a huge start, with four homers, 14 RBIs, and 10 runs, with a .345 batting average. Unfortunately, those are the only to Bucs with any value, unless you still think Jason Bay can turn it around.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chad Billingsley went from sleeper of the year to most dropped player in leagues within a couple weeks. Billingsley started the year in the bullpen, and his ERA is around 5.50 after a couple weeks. This news may be good for you, especially if someone in your league has dropped Billingsley, because then you should get him. Billingsley has recently reentered the rotation and seems to be getting back on track.

Blake DeWitt had gone 5-for-9 to open the year, and there was a lot of hype as a result. But the reality is that once Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche return, DeWitt will probably head back to the minors. DeWitt has cooled off, with a batting average of .261 and no homers. On the brighter side, Rafael Furcal is looking like a huge steal, batting .403 with 15 runs scored. Furcal usually starts out slow and then improves over the course of the season, but this year with Furcal hitting well from the start of the season, look out.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are just ridiculously good. The duo is a combined 7-0 with an ERA just around 1.80. The rest of the rotation is off to a fairly good start as well, including Micah Owings and 90-year old Randy Johnson. Doug Davis is out for a while with thyroid cancer, but even he was pitching well before his DL trip.

There is also a lot to like among the young Diamondbacks hitters. Mark Reynolds has 16 RBIs on 5 homers and 14 runs with a respectable .291 batting average and is looking like a star in the making. Chris Young is at it again with five homers and 14 runs, but that .234 average must improve. Justin Upton is also off to a tremendous start, with a .377/5/13 stat line. Hard to believe from a guy drafted in the late rounds in most leagues. Conor Jackson is batting .364 with 15 runs scored, 3 homers, and 17 RBIs, and Eric Byrnes and Stephen Drew are also enjoying good starts. This young group of hitters could be having a lot of fun this summer, which is good news to D’Backs hitters’ fantasy owners.

Colorado Rockies

Pitching is the Rockies’ weak point, and we can see why. There is no one who is worth starting on a fantasy team in the entire rotation. Young Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales are promising, but are too inconsistent right now. Aaron Cook and Mark Redman are known for inconsistency, and this year has been no different. Ace Jeff Francis is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA. Francis is a second-half kind of guy, and he has been for the most part consistent in the past two or three seasons, so besides Francis, don’t bother playing any of the Rockies’ pitchers.

As for the offense, it is off to a pretty slow start. Other than Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday, who are having good, but not wowing, starts to the season, no one has met expectations. Brad Hawpe, one of the greater sleepers last season, and Troy Tulowitzki, the young shortstop phenom, are struggling to bat .200. One year wonders? It is too early to make any conclusions, but it is in the back of our minds right now.

San Diego Padres

Jake Peavy is ridiculous. 30 innings, 27 strikeouts, 3-0 start. He will be a No. 1 fantasy pitcher for the next 10 years. Chris Young, meanwhile, has been the Chris Young of the 2007’s 2^nd half rather than the All-Star Cy Young Candidate of the first half. Young is 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA with 13 strikeouts, but 12 walks. Keep an eye on young Justin Germano. He is 0-1, but with a 1.35 ERA. The concern is his six strikeouts in 20 innings.

The Padres’ offense is mediocre, if not subpar, and other than young soon-to-be-star Kevin Kouzmanoff and powerful Adrian Gonzalez, no one is worth owning. But even these two are good at best and are not superstars, at least not now. There is a possibility that Brian Giles is available in your league, and if you want a consistent veteran, do go for him, but don’t expect him to make or break your season.

San Francisco Giants

This team is a mess, even without Barry Bonds. The offense, in fact, is so bad that you would wish Bonds would be around to give the team some kind of juiced boost. New acquisition Aaron Rowand is homerless with just four runs and RBIs. Half of the rest of the lineup is batting under .200. The rotation has a bright spot. Tim Lincecum has 22 strikeouts with a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. The next Jake Peavy? Possibly. But with the Giants' offense a debacle, don't expect Lincecum to pile up wins. Unfortunately for Lincecum, he is probably the only guy who could win for the Giants, as Matt Cain has an ERA over 6.50, and Barry Zito is... well, Barry, Zito, the most overpaid human being ever. Jonathan Sanchez and Kevin Correia are not consistent major league starters either. So basically, besides Lincecum, stay away from these Giants.

Like a Virgin: Panic Button Time? By Lora Barnhart

2008-04-24T14:25:00.003-04:00

We at FB101 want to again thank you for your visits and again remind you that in order to properly update the website we are going to be providing our articles on the blog first and updating the site less regularly. Thanks, The FB101 Team

Now on to Lora's article:
This week was mostly more of the same, you guys. I am doing ok in two of my leagues and pretty darn badly in the third. I got a little discouraged, but this week Evan's article covered exactly this topic: Stinking Up The Joint In April. According to Evan, the stats don't start to matter in most league types until June-ish, so I guess there is still hope. Check out his article if you haven't done so! Anyway, this is what went down in each of my leagues in the last few days.

Roto League (me vs. 7 intimidating owners): Currently 3/8

This team more or less cares for itself. I am sort of in love with my team in this league. Chipper Jones is currently on fire, which is nice; Hanley Ramirez is living up to expectations; Alex Rios has been working for me; Roy Oswalt looks to be on an upswing; and Dan Haren has had quite a few good outings. Overall, this team is pretty solid, so I mostly just leave it alone (except to check the lineups every day to have it be as full as possible, of course). I am giving some thought to dropping Brad Hawpe because he has been in a slump lately, and I am keeping an eye on Heath Bell, who is underperforming a little bit as of now. The problem is, I don't think the guys available on the FA list are any better than those guys, and I doubt anyone would take them in a trade, and I am not willing to part with any of my quality starters just yet. I think I will go with status quo for now in this league.

A trade was proposed to me in this league for the first time, and it required a good ponder. Another owner offered me Rickie Weeks and Paul Konerko for Grady Sizemore and Placido Polanco. I gave this trade some thought, but ultimately I decided to decline the offer. Sizemore is doing pretty well (already 5 SB), but Polanco has been a little injured all year. Weeks has been hitting HRs, but Konerko is off to a bit of a slow start. All things considered, I think Sizemore is the best player in the trade, and that was the determining factor for me. This was a pretty close call, and maybe I will regret it if Konerko turns around, but for now I am standing by my decision.

Points League (me vs. 9 owners from "Albuquerque"): Currently 4/10

I have been doing pretty well in this league so far, but you can't be too careful. I have Jones in this one too, and of course he is off to a good start. Edgar Renteria, Magglio Ordonez, and Ryan Zimmerman are really reliable. Manny Ramirez is doing really well for me (which I appreciate, even though -- of course -- I'm not a Sox fan). Jermaine Dye is hitting really well, which is great. I am watching the situations with Jorge Posada (he's playing 1B now while he rests his shoulder, which is fine, but I need him to get back to C) and Jose Reyes (he hit his head on Chase Utley's knee stealing third and might not be able to play). I am holding onto Ty Wigginton...yeah, he's injured, but he might be back, and I love that he's eligible at so many positions on my lineup. On the pitching side, Jake Peavy is really doing well for me. Otherwise, though, my pitching is rather disappointing. Jason Isringhausen is doing just sort of average, as is Brian Wilson, but I don't think there's anyone better on the FA list now, so I will stick with them. John Maine is not the factor I'd hoped he would be...but I'm going to hold on to him for now. Similarly, J.J. Putz is still on the DL, but I think he's going to be worth the wait. For now, my team is doing well enough on the batting side that I am not too worried, but it is certainly a situation to watch.

Head-To-Head League (me vs. 9 friends of FB101): Currently 9/10

Of course, I am doing the worst in the league in which I actually know the owners personally. Mortifying! I lost my first matchup in spectacular fashion. This league differs from the others in a few ways, but one of the things that annoys me a little is that the lineups are set for the entire week every Monday, and the lineup is the same for every game in the week. In other words, I can't play Polanco when Robinson Cano isn't playing because the Yankees have the day off. This feature makes the league the lowest-maintenance of the three, which I thought would be good, but it is actually quite frustrating. It really changes the strategy for the whole season. I am sure this sounds like I am just making excuses for my ridiculously bad ranking, and I probably am, but that doesn't make it less true!

Anyway, last week I had my first matchup in this league, and I lost in 8 out of 10 categories -- I managed to tie my opponent in HRs and win in saves, but otherwise it was not good, not good at all. It was not even close in any of the 8 categories I lost in. The second matchup is over today, and I am losing in 9 out of 10 categories. It is pretty bad, you guys, especially in light of Evan's article, which said that only in H2H leagues do the April stats matter. Oh no! I am not even sure what to do about this team, because it is clearly weak in so many areas. It is actually a little paralyzing because I don't have any idea where to start.

I did accept one trade in this league this week, picking up SP Jered Weaver for RP B.J. Ryan, so perhaps my pitching stats will improve in my third matchup. It is pretty clear that this team needs the most attention this week. I am going to evaluate the league carefully and might propose some trades. I don't think it can get much worse. It is sort of a mystery to me how this team can be so bad, since I used exactly the same rankings for the autodraft in this league and my Roto League, and I followed those rankings when I did the live draft in my Points League. I don't know if it is an effect of the scoring format or what...I will look into this a little more for next week. I hope to have better news on the H2H front soon!

Fantasy Baseball Awards, Week Three

2008-04-23T08:41:00.003-04:00

This posting is the start of a new trend: more content on the blog! For a short time, while we upgrade the home site (fantasybaseball101.com), we will be publishing content here first. However the home site will remain active and interactive. Visit both!

This season, the FBA’s will undertake a statistical experiment. Instead of waiting until seasons’ end to tally final figures and declare winners, we will track contenders from day one to see when trends unfold, and when incumbents step up to compete in their respective category. From the first week of the season through to now, here are our leaders for each of the various Fantasy Baseball Awards, as we track leaders each week:

National League

1. Fantasy MVP in 2008: Derek Lee
i. Runners-up: Chipper Jones, Pat Burrell, David Wright, Albert Pujols, and Chase Utley

2. Fantasy Cy Young in 2008 – Brandon Webb
i. Runners-up: Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, Dan Haren, Johnny Cueto, and Johan Santana

3. Fantasy Rookie of the Year – Justin Upton
i. Runners-up: Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Kosuke Fukudome, Hiroki Kuroda, and Joey Votto

4. Fantasy Relief Man of the Year – Eric Gagne
i. Runners-up: Jason Isringhausen, Matt Capps, Kerry Wood, and Francisco Cordero

American League

1. Fantasy MVP in 2008: Manny Ramirez
i. Runners-up: Carlos Pena, Nick Markakis, B.J. Upton, Carlos Guillen, and Alexis Rios

2. Fantasy Cy Young in 2008 – Daisuke Matsuzaka
i. Runners-up: Cliff Lee, Chien-Ming Wong, Ervin Santana, Zack Greinke, and Javier Vazquez

3. Fantasy Rookie of the Year – Nick Blackburn
i. Runners-up: Joba Chamberlain, David Murphy, and Clay Buchholz

4. Fantasy Relief Man of the Year – Joe Nathan
i. Runners-up: Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, George Sherrill, Joakim Soria, Mariano Rivera

This past week in the National League, the changes atop the leader board are obvious. Derek Lee pushed aside reigning NL fantasy MVP Hanley Ramirez to take the top spot with a major league leading 7 long-balls. Brandon Webb pushed aside Jake Peavy for the lead in NL fantasy Cy Young, while Juston Upton held strong to maintain his position atop all others for fantasy NL Rookie of the Year. The surprise of the week – a presumably substance-free Eric Gagne taking the top spot among contenders for NL fantasy Relief Man-of-the year.

In the American League, Manny Ramirez went on a rampage this past week to claim the top spot among AL contenders for fantasy MVP. Matsuzaka continued his sophomore dominance among all AL starters, and Joe Nathan topped AL closers to take the top spot among relief men. AL Rookie of the Year still remains wide open, so we expect more flip-flopping here than most other categories, but stay tuned for more as the season unfolds.

Reviewing an Early Season Trade

2008-04-22T15:15:00.002-04:00

Before the season began we were asked who won the below trade.

The Question:
David Ortiz
Kelly Johnson
Boof Bonser
Franklin Moralas

OR

Brandon Phillips
Brett Meyers
Tim Lincecum

I am getting the Phillips side... I'm not realy happy with how my staff turned out so I need some pitching.

Our Answer:
We think you win, and win big frankly. In fantasy, Ortiz for Phillips alone is nearly a fair deal. Add to that you are getting Myers and Lincecum, both aces and terrific in strikeout leagues. Bonser and Morales are big question marks and your league appears deep enough that they are probably borderline waiver material. While Kelly Johnson is solid, he's not enough to make up for the three top tier players you are getting with Lincecum, Phillips and Myers.

To defend your trade partner, Ortiz is the best overall player (slightly) and that is usually a good goal for someone making a trade - receive the best player. That added to the fact that your partner is getting two hitters and you are getting just one also minimizes a bit how much you have won the trade. Still, I would have liked to have known what stat categories you league utilizes. There would be no reason for a league to veto this trade.

Joe

Trades

2008-04-17T14:12:00.005-04:00

At fantasybaseball101.com one of our offerings is to help you make good trades. Whether the trade has already been consummated and your league is mulling veto, or you want a second opinion before committing to a trade, you can contact us and get detailed thoughts on the trade.

This has been a successful venture for our site thus far in the early season, and we want to spread the love. Below I will begin sharing with you some of the trade questions we've seen and our responses so that you may learn some useful bits of information yourself. You can also chime in on your own about trades by visiting our forum: http://fantasybaseball101.com/Forum.html

The Question:
Is it advisable to make any of these trades:
1) paul lo duca for ryan doumit
2) barry zito for brandon backe
3) aaron rowand for bill hall
4) j.j. hardy for jeff keppinger
5) brandon lyon for trevor hoffman
Which ones should i make?

Our Response:
The one trades worth making for you is : Hoffman for Lyons.
The others are skewed in favor of the other team. This trade nets you more than the all-time saves leader. It also nets you a player with a defined role that is unlikely to change as quickly as Brandon Lyon. Putting aside the fact that folks like Kevin Gregg crop up every season and do well, there are few "staples" in closing as reliable as Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, etc. When you have the opportunity to trade a Brandon Lyon for a Trevor Hoffman, as the owner of Lyons, I would jump on such a deal. Lyon will have to fight off Tony Pena and Chad Qualls for work in the 9th inning, whereas Hoffman will be the closer in San Diego until he can't throw a baseball, at which point they will choose a successor. Heath Bell and Cla Meredith are not real competitors at this point for the job, so to me, this is open and shut. Take Hoffman, trade Lyon, and table the other deals as they seem to serve you little purpose (with special emphasis on the deal of Hardy for Keppinger - who may well be out of a job should Alex Gonzalez ever return).

Bonds to Cardinals!

2008-04-01T23:04:00.007-04:00

Earlier today the St. Louis Cardinals announced that they have signed Barry Bonds to a one-year contract. Bond is expected to hit third in the Cardinals lineup, and will relegate Skip Schumaker to the bench. Despite his age, Bonds managed 28 homers in only 340 at-bats last season with a .276 BA. With Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus providing more lineup protection than he was afforded in San Fran, Bonds should be good for another 25 homers and an outstanding OBP%.

APRIL FOOLS! We hope you didn't drop someone for Bonds -- we just couldn't resist.

Who to Target & Downgrade?

2008-03-26T22:40:00.005-04:00

Everyone knows that Alex Rodriguez is a great pick in any fantasy baseball draft format. But figuring out who the next breakout player will be is a more difficult challenge. In this entry, I profile players who should provide good value in 2008.

Good Value Players
1. Nick Markakis - Only 24 & still improving. Solid five category player.
2. Chad Billingsley - Full year in the rotation should lead to mega K's, good wins.
3. Brett Myers - Back in the rotation on a winning team. 16 wins + with K's is realistic.
4. Adrian Beltre - Three year trend looks good, still only 28 and entering his prime.
5. Carlos Gomez - Starting for the Twins. Cheap source of speed in AL only leagues.
6. Derek Lee - Two years removed from broken wrist could lead to return to 30+ homers.
7. Jermaine Dye - Second half shows power is still there. Expect ~31 homers, .275 BA.
8. Corey Patterson - Starting for the Reds. Bandbox of a park, could lead to 20-30 season.
9. Ian Kinsler - 20-20 last year and at age 25, only going to get better.
10. Jeremy Hermida - Terrific second half, could finally reach potential scouts drooled over.
11. Ty Wigginton - Journeyman is undervalued and should provide 25 homers at 2B or 3B.
12. Mike Mussina - Terrible '08, but 1 yr ago had 15 W, 3.51 ERA season. May be worth the risk.
13. Jason Bay - Only 29, top contender for comeback player of the year.
14. Richie Weeks - 9 homers, 10 steals in 98 September at-bats. Could have break-out season.
15. Alex Gordon - Solid second-half overcome atrocious start. Will breakout, question is when.
16. Rafael Furcal - Played injured through first half of '07. Stats from '06 more likely for '08.
17. Troy Tulowitski - No trouble adjusting to the majors. 23 years old, will continue to develop.
18. Delmon Young - Solid '07, should lead to further power development in '08.
19. Austin Kearns - Moving to a new ballpark will help. If stays healthy, ready for breakout year
20. Felix Hernandez - Only 21, ready to become a star. Good source of K's and wins.
21. Yovani Gollardo - Injured now, but this kid is for real. Mega source of K's.
22. Randy Johnson - Don't forget about this strikeout king. Out til mid-April, but late pick
23. Travis Hafner - Not nearly as bad as '07, not as good as '06. Expect '05 stats - 305-33-108
24. Alex Rios - Improved in each of the past three years, entering prime at age 27.
25. Vernon Wells - Much better than '07, but don't count on SB. At age 29, expect .275-27-97

Players on the Decline
1. Dontrelle Willis - Atrocious spring, atrocious '07 and now has to face DH. Yikes.
2. Manny Ramirez - Decline in '07 was no fluke. Still good, but at 35 best days are behind him.
3. Barry Zito - Bad spring, and declining 3 year trend. Terrible team, no opportunity for wins.
4. Magglio Ordonez - Great player, but not as good as '07 performance. Likely to be overvalued.
5. Hanley Ramirez - Great player but won't put up '07 numbers. FL wants him to steal less in 08
6. Carlos Zambrano - Look at his three year trend. 'Nuff said.
7. Aaron Rowand - Leaving good hitters park, always an injury risk. Expect a decline.
8. Ted Lilly - Good pitcher, also not as good as '07. Expect wins to stay same, but ERA to go up.
9. Brian Bannister - Stats are better than his talent level. Expect higher ERA in '08.
10. Carlos Pena - Overvalued. 30 homers - yes. 46 - no.
11. Mike Lowell - Fenway is good fit for him, but decline expected at age 34.
12. Jay Bruce & Homer Bailey - Dusty Baker is anti-rookie. Both were sent down to minors.
13. Dave Roberts - Good source of SB, but injury risk and R. Davis, F. Lewis, & E. Velez on deck
14. Joba Chamberlain - Boatloads of talent, but not as good as '07. Starting in the 'pen.
15. Eric Gagne - Major Injury risk, got shelled in Boston last year. Time as elite closer is over.
16. Jose Valverde - Great in '07, but look at '06 stats. Cannot be trusted, so overvalued.
17. Chad Cordero - Solid pick, but contract year. If (when) Nats fall out of race, he's trade bait.

Boatload of Updates

2008-03-24T17:39:00.002-04:00

With the start of the season just hours away, here are some updates on position battles, demotions to the minors, and performance appraisals.

1. Manager Lou Pinella has named Kerry Wood the closer for the Cubs. Wood beat out Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry for the job.

2. John Smoltz has tightness in his shoulder and may begin the season on the DL. http://www.ajc.com/services/content/sports/braves/stories/2008/03/23/smoltz_0324.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=21

3. Mike Hampton has worked his way back from several injury-plagued seasons and appears to be set to start the season as part of Atlanta's rotation. Hampton has looked sharp this spring, compiling a 1.98 ERA in 13 2/3 innings pitched.

4. Cameron Maybin, expected by many to begin the season as the Marlins starting centerfielder, may end up being demoted to triple A. He is hitting an infinitesimal .188 this spring.

5. Brandon Lyon, the Diamondbacks' closer, is having a miserable spring and may lose his job to Chad Qualls or Tony Pena. In 6 2/3 innings pitched Lyon has only one strikeout and has given up 12 runs and 16 hits.

6. Fantasy Baseball owners expecting to get a bunch of steals from Lastings Milledge or Felipe Lopez should think again. According to manager Manny Acta, stolen base attempts lead to too many unnecessary outs. After taking over for Frank Robinson, one of Acta's first acts (pardon the pun) was to significantly reduced the number of stolen bases attempts. Expect more of the same this season. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/22/AR2008032202523.html

7. John Maine has looked awesome this spring. He now has thrown 25 1/3 innings, accumulating 28 strikeouts and a 1.78 ERA.

8. Carlos Gomez, obtained in the Johan Santana trade from the Mets, has won the starting centerfield job. But many scouts believe Gomez could use more seasoning in the minors. Expect Gomez to have a relatively low batting average, but rack up the stolen bases.

9. Evan Longoria, widely assumed to be the opening day third basemen for the Rays, has been sent down to triple A. Apparently, Longoria's demotion was less to do with performance issues and more to do with the Rays being able to retain rights to him for an additional year.

10. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a favorite sleeper candidate for many Roto players, thinks his demotion to triple A is imminent. Salty was quoted as saying that he will be sent down if the Rangers hold onto Gerald Laird. http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/032408dnsporanglede.3382838.html

11. Francisco Liriano is back and lookin' good! In his last outing he tossed a no-hitter for five innings against the Orioles, and struck out five.

Who to Draft?

2008-03-20T09:59:00.005-04:00

So, 24 hours before draft day you find out you have the second overall pick in your 5x5 mixed league draft. Who do you take?

The first overall pick will assuredly be Alex Rodriguez. If you are so lucky that ARod falls to #2, draft him and immediately run to the local grocery store to buy a lottery ticket.

More realistically, the choice is between the following stars: Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and the trio of shorstops, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes.

It is a daunting task to choose between such amazing fantasy players. But lets analyze each to come up with an answer. First, let's start with the premise that your first round pick should anchor your team. He should be reliable, consistent, and put up huge numbers. Second, all other things being equal, it is preferable to draft a player at a weak position. Third, are there any causes of concern (e.g. injury risk, less playing time, weaker lineup protection, etc.) for the upcoming season. We review each in turn.

Chase Utley: Over the past three seasons Utley has averaged .310-27-103-109-13. Pretty impressive, especially for a second basemen. Utley has to be a consideration because he plays in a hitter's ballpark, and at age 29 he is entering the prime of his career. With a tantalizing ability to help your team in all five categories, Utley is a definite first round pick.

Matt Holliday: Holliday has morphed from a platoon player to a genuine fantasy baseball stud. He has improved in every year of his big-league career, and is still in his prime at age 29. Last season, Holliday hit .339-36-137-120-11. Moreover, there is every reason to think Holliday can replicate, or dare I say, exceed his '07 performance. Compared to Utley, Holliday is a better overall player, but Utley has the advantage of playing at a weak position.

Albert Pujols: Perhaps the most talented player on this list, Pujols only hit .327 with 32 homers and 103 rbi's. Bothered by an elbow problem all season, Pujols opted to rest it rather than undergo surgery. Early reports from this spring suggest that the elbow could break down at any minute. Reports like this make Pujols a risky gambit in the first round. Even if his elbow holds up, manager Tony LaRussa is sure to rest him more often, which should impact his statistics. If healthy, however, Pujols is a leading contender for second overall pick, and could put up numbers like he did in 2006, when he hit .330-49-137-119-7.

David Wright: Too often the New York media over-hypes players on the Mets and Yankees. But for Wright the hype is justified. After all, how many third basemen are capable of swiping 30 bags? Wright is still young -- only 25 -- and has room to grow. Last season, Wright had his best year yet, hitting .325-30-107-113-34. We expect Wright to put up similar numbers in '08.

Miguel Cabrera: Unheralded while playing for the Marlins, Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game today. Over the past three seasons Cabrera has averaged: .328-31-103-116-4. The amazing thing about those stats is that he had virtually no lineup protection in Florida. Having moved to Detroit, a ballpark whose configurations should positively affect his stats, he now has players like Magglio Ordonez and Gary Sheffield to protect him. Cabrera will be turning 25 in mid-April and could have a monster offensive season in '08. The hot corner is not a particularly strong position, so Cabrera warrants consideration as a top draft pick. But he's probably not as valuable as some of the other players on this list, so perhaps a mid to late first round pick for him would be better.

Jimmy Rollins: Rollins seems to have pulled a Willie Mays Hayes the past few seasons. Originally a slap hitter with a ton of speed, Rollins has developed into a legitimate power threat. Last season was the best of his career; he hit .296-30-94-139-41. Playing in a hitter's ballpark, and only 29 years old, there is every reason to believe Rollins can repeat his '07 performance in '08. Although lacking batting average compared to other players on this list, the runs and stolen bases he gets more than make up for it. Rollins plays shortstop, a traditionally weak position, that is deeper than usual this season. His ability to contribute in all five categories makes Rollins a strong consideration for second overall. Also note that if you are in a points league that counts triples, Rollins is an outstanding pick in that format too.

Hanley Ramirez: Admired by many fantasy baseball "experts" for his dominant 2007 season, Hanley has been picked second overall in many roto leagues this winter/spring. Building off an impressive debut season in 2006, Ramirez astounded many with his 2008 performance of: .332-29-81-125-51. Clearly, if Ramirez replicates that performance in '08 he is an outstanding second overall pick. But unlike many experts, we do not believe Ramirez warrants a high first round pick. There are too many question marks for our liking. First, he had off season shoulder surgery which could impact his performance. Second, he no longer has Miguel Cabrera in the lineup offering protection. Pitchers will not be surprised by his capability and will be more likely to pitch around him in '08. Third, as good as he is, Ramirez has only one season of dominance under his belt. Who is to know whether Ramirez's '07 performance will be the norm, or if he will revert back to his '06 season, which was good, but certainly not worthy of the second overall pick? Our bet is for somewhere in between.

Jose Reyes: The best overall speedster in baseball, Reyes has averaged .284-13-65-113-67 over the past three seasons. The benefit of having Reyes on your team is that you do not need to worry about steals for the rest of the draft. Reyes also has the ability to hit for power, as illustrated by the 19 homers he hit in '06. At only 24 years of age, most scouts believe Reyes has yet to reach his peak. If Reyes continues to steal 70+ bases and increases his power numbers, he could eventually be the number one player drafted overall. But he's not there yet. 2008 is an atypical year in that there are many players capable of stealing 20 bases or more. Thus, speed is not at a premium that it usually is, and as a consequence, Reyes is not as valuable as other players on this list.

So, who should you take? Just about any of the players listed above will be good bets and be a boon to your team. But for our team, we prefer Wright or Rollins.

Corey Patterson: Rebirth of Slick?

2008-03-18T20:37:00.002-04:00

Corey Patterson is hitting .474 this spring, mostly in the leadoff spot.
"I always thought he'd be a good leadoff man," Baker said. "He's got all the tangibles to be a leadoff man. Maybe sometime you're not ready. When he came up, he didn't know how to bunt. They said he was going to be a 30-30 man and it got in his head."

In Great American ballpark I think it would be hard to ignore the potential sleeper that is Corey Patterson. Fantasy GM's are getting a bargain for him thus far as he has dropped to bargain basement level in drafts and is selling for pennies on the dollar at auction. Patterson should be on everyone's radar by now and those who shy away for fear of Jay Bruce are forgetting who is at the helm for Cincinnati: Dusty Baker - Mr. Veteran. Draft or buy Patterson NOW.

News, Notes, and More

2008-03-15T09:57:00.004-04:00

Now that we've come to the middle of March, fantasy baseball owners across the nation are sitting in their makeshift war rooms preparing for their draft. Last minute injuries, demotions to the minors, etc. can thwart the best made strategies. Here's a quick update from the Spring to ensure that you do not accidentally draft someone who just got hit by an 18-wheeler.

Injuries
1. Willy Mo Pena tore his oblique muscle. Kind of hard to swing with authority when you have a torn oblique, so Pena is expected to be on the shelf for up to eight weeks. This leaves a hole in the Nationals outfield, as Elijah Dukes has been swinging like a little leaguer, and Dmitri Young is considered too heavy to patrol the outfield.

2. BJ Ryan made his first appearance of the Spring and looked sharp. Ryan should resume his role as closer for the Blue Jays.

3. Brad Lidge, returning from knee surgery, threw 35 pitches yesterday and is expected to make his debut late this week. If things go well, he could be ready for opening day. If not, expect Flash Gordon to get the bulk of the work out of the pen.

4. Kaz Matsui, I kid you not, had surgery to repair an anal fissure. I don't even know what that means, but it cannot be good. While not a major injury, Matsui is expected to miss opening day which increases Mark Loretta's value for the first week or two of the season.

5. Since returning from a thumb injury that he suffered a few weeks ago, Adrian Beltre has been strong, going 6-16 with a homer.

Hot/Cold
1. John Maine is looking good, after a shaky second half in '07. Maine shutout the Marlins for five innings, striking out six.

2. Ryan Dempster got shelled in his last start for the Cubs. He let up five earned runs in 1 2/3 innings pitched. Fantasy baseball managers should stay far away from Dempster. In recent years Dempster has been terrible as a closer where he only had to pitch one inning a game. Now, the Cubs somehow think Dempster will excel when he has to pitch 5-7 innings a game. Ummm, good luck with that.

3. Franklin Morales, who came on strong as a rookie in 2007, is struggling thus far this Spring. Yesterday, Morales let up five earned runs, and ten hits in two and two-third innings pitched. Scouts say Morales's velocity is down from last year, and believe he could struggle if it does not come back. http://mlbpn.com/category/franklin-morales/

AL & NL Only Update

2008-03-13T10:31:00.003-04:00

There are certain players that are non-factors in mixed leagues with a deep free agent pool. In those leagues few care about the fourth outfielder, bench players, or even the fifth pitcher on a team's starting rotation. In AL and NL only leagues, however, good teams are separated by their in-depth knowledge of bench players, role players, and platoons. Here are several updates from Spring Training that are geared toward those AL and NL only owners.

1. Reggie Willits - Fantasy baseball owners banking on Willits repeating his impressive rookie season which saw him hit .293 with 27 steals, should think again. The Angels are toying with the idea of sending Willits down to AAA to start the season so that he can get regular at-bats. http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/angels/la-sp-angrep13mar13,1,628049.story

2. Cameron Maybin - Most pre-season publications list Maybin as the hands-down favorite to win the starting centerfield job for the Marlins. Obtained from the Tigers in the Dontrelle Willis/Miguel Cabrera deal, Maybin is battling mega stars Cody Ross and Alejandra de Aza for the starting job. Just seeing if you're paying attention with the mega stars comment. Maybin is off to a good start, hitting .304 in 23 spring at-bats. But even if he wins the job as expected, Maybin is likely to struggle against major league pitching.

3. A.J. Burnett - A star pitcher when healthy, Burnett let up one run in four innings pitched on Wednesday against the Pirates, and appears to be in good health. Betting he'll stay that way is like eating a big mac and supersized fries every day, and betting you'll lose weight.

4. Johnny Cuerto - Cureto pitched four shutout innings in his last spring start, and is making a strong case for a starting job behind rotation fixtures Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

5. Rocco Baldelli - Baldelli is out indefinitely due a medical condition that leaves him extremely fatigued. In his press conference, Baldelii raised the possibility of retirement if a cure could not be found.

6. Albert Pujols - Okay, clearly Pujols is a key player in every league format. But we thought an update was warranted since he just hit his fourth homer of the spring. Although reports suggest his elbow could blow out at any time, his performance does not appear to be suffering.

Spring Update - Stolen Base Edition

2008-03-11T21:13:00.003-04:00

Several more updates from Spring Training:

1. Rickie Weeks stole his 5th base of the Spring, starting right where he left off after a monster September.

2. Scott Podsednek, vying for a spot on Colorado's roster, stole his 5th base of the Spring. From 2003 to 2006 Pods averaged 53 steals a season, but after an injury-plagued 2007 caused him to miss 90 games, the White Sox decided to part ways with him. Even with a good Spring, fantasy baseball owners should be cautious as Podsednek will be a fourth outfielder at best on a team stacked in the outfield with Matt Holliday, Willie "Mays Hayes" Tavares, and Brad Hawpe.

3. Eugenio Velez, competing for a roster spot with the Giants, stole his 7th base earlier today. Velez, who had 49 steals and a .299 BA in 376 double-A at-bats in 2007, is unlikely to earn a starting job. The Giants have a crowded outfield, many of whom are similar in what they bring to the table. Dave Roberts, Randy Winn, Rajai Davis, and Velez will all be competing for corner outfield spots. Velez, a centerfielder by trade, is unlikely to beat out any of those veterans. Moreover, centerfield is the one position where there is no competition as Aaron Rowand is a lock to start on opening day. Our advice is to pay attention to the waiver wire and if Roberts and/or Winn get injured, as they are apt to do, Velez could find himself thrust into the lineup and could be a source of extra steals.

4. Colby Rasmus, likely to start in the Cardinals outfield, stole his third base of the Spring. Although he is a top prospect, Rasmus has never played a game above double A, so he could struggle in 2008 as he adapts to major league pitching. Even if he struggles at the plate, Rasmus still has the wheels to swipe 15-20 bags if he wins the job.

Who Do You Rank Higher?

2008-03-10T15:10:00.003-04:00

Here at Fantasy Baseball 101 Inter-Galactic Headquarters we are in the midst of drafting our pre-season rankings. Even for experienced roto junkies like ourselves, there are some rankings difficult to formulate. Throughout the spring we will tackle some tough examples. Here's one for our first segment.

Who is the better shortstop for 2008: Rafael Furcal, J.J. Hardy, or Khalil Greene?

It is a tougher call than one may initially expect. Each of these players have their own pros/cons that a fantasy baseball owner must take into consideration when constructing their own rankings. Let's start with an analysis of J.J. Hardy.

Hardy hit .277 with 26 homers and 80 rbi's last year. His hr/Ab have improved in each of the past three seasons, and at 25 years of age, should only get better. Surprisingly, Hardy had the best batting average of the three players, and he should continue to have protection in the loaded Milwaukee Brewers lineup. But there are several cons to be think about. For instance, he hit only eight homers in the second half. Moreover, Hardy has little history of power in previous years so it is possible that '07 was a fluke.

Khalil Greene was remarkably consistent before his 2007 statistical explosion. After hitting exactly 15 homers for three years in a row, Greene hit 27 homers last year, to go along with 97 rbi's and a .254 batting average. Unlike Hardy, Greene was consistent throughout the season, smacking 13 long balls in the first half and 14 in the second. At 28 years of age, Greene is in the prime of his career. But Greene has an abysmal OBP% and will hurt your team's batting average. It is also possible that Greene can revert to a 15 home run hitter in 2008.

Furcal, probably the best known of the three, had an off-year in 2007 due, in part, to injury. In 581 at-bats, Furcal hit .270 with 8 homers, 47 rbi's and 25 steals. But to fully appreciate Furcal's potential, one must look at his 2006 season when he hit .300-15-63-113-37. This raises the question of whether his 2007 season was due to injury, erosion of skill, or some combination thereof. Complicating matters further, Furcal has been bothered by hamstring ailments in the early part of Spring Training. His stolen bases may also influenced on whether he bats leadoff for the Dodgers instead of Juan Pierre.

So, how should these three middle-men be ranked? It depends on the strengths and weaknesses of your roster. If you are building a team from scratch, Furcal is probably your best bet because, when healthy, he can contribute solid stats in all five traditional categories. If, however, your team needs help in the power categories and can afford to take a hit in batting average, Greene is your man. Conversely, if you have several Andruw Jones types, and do not want to jeopardize your batting average further, Furcal or Hardy are the logical choices. Finally, if you are in a keeper league and are looking for a young, improving shortstop, Hardy is the guy to get.

What are your thoughts?

Spring Box Scores

2008-03-07T12:02:00.004-05:00

It's only early March, yet there are already some strong -- and not so strong -- performances in Spring Training. Let's take a look at a few players:

Juan Pierre - Stole his 4th base of the Spring.

Troy Tulowitzki - Hit his third homer of the Spring.

Steve Pearce - the Pittsburgh Pirate rookie already has three homers this Spring and could be a sleeper candidate. At four levels last year (A ball - Majors) he combined for 31 homers, 117 rbis, 16 stolen bases and a batting average well over .300.

Albert Pujols - Went 2-3 with his second homer yesterday. Elbow is holding up so far.

Jared Weaver - 2-0 so far. Pitched three innings yesterday, letting up one run and striking out four.

Adam Eaton - Got shelled on Thursday, and is now 0-2. Let up 5 hits and 4 runs in 2 innings of work.

Down and Out?

2008-03-05T23:14:00.003-05:00

What hope do the new-look Mets have of recapturing the hearts of their disenchanted fans with such poor fortune so early in the season? Having lost Orlando Hernandez, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Church, Moises Alou, and Carlos Delgado in the spring, fantasy free-agent Mets are quickly becoming draft-day flat-tires.

1. Moises Alou was declared out for 4-6 weeks today with a hernia.
2. Delgado is coping with a right hip imingement, proving the recalcitrance of his hip woes and giving fantasy owners little hope of seeing him surmount 500 at-bats.
3. Carlos Beltran is having issues with his surgically repaired knees - so don't hold your breath on a return to 30 steals.
4. Ryan Church suffered a "grade 2" concussion after a spring training collusion chasing a fly ball.
5. Orlando Hernandez had foot surgery and is still not season-ready at this point in spring.

There are a bevy of additional Mets of lesser fantasy interest following suit and riding the pine, injured. While not an advocate of avoiding an entire team because of the misfortune of a few - it si hard to imagine a fast start for David Wright or Jose Reyes with little else around them that qualifies as protection. Exercise caution in drafting presently injured Mets since players like Alou, Delgado, and Beltran may miss considerably more time than anticipated throughout the season. Happy drafting and auctioning.

Injury Notes

2008-03-05T13:45:00.002-05:00

Injuries are the kryptonite of every fantasy baseball team. Nothing can sabatoge a winning season faster. Here's a quick update on several players with injury histories:

1. On Tuesday, Randy Johnson pitched a two-inning simulated game and had no back pain or discomfort. RJ is scheduled for another simulated game over the weekend and if things go well, will get his first live action start next week.

2. Francisco Liriano threw batting practice on Tuesday and will get his first start of the spring on Friday.

3. Jason Schmidt, recovering from shoulder surgery, played catch on Monday. Schmidt has complained of fatigue and soreness and may not be ready for opening day.

4. Flame thrower Yovani Gollardo is likely to begin the season on the DL after minor knee surgery, but his return could be quicker than initially anticipated. Tomorrow he is expected to throw off a mound for the first time since the surgery.

5. This one may shock you, but Moises Alou is hurt. Apparently, he has a sore groin. We do not expect him to miss much time, but Alou cycles through more injuries than Roman gladiator.

Spring Trainings Happenings

2008-03-04T12:11:00.002-05:00

A few more updates on news from Spring Training camps.

1. Carlos Marmol appears to be the front runner to be the Chicago Cubs's closer. According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Marmol has been strong in his two outings, while Howry has struggled (three runs, five hits in one inning of work on Monday), and Wood has made only one appearance. Chicago Sun-Times

2. The Reds signed outfield Corey Patterson to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. Patterson had an atrocious year in 2007, but in previous years has been a fantasy baseball dynamo. For example, in 2006 Patterson hit .276 with 16 homers, 53 rbi's and 45 steals. With Patterson, Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper all vying for a starting centerfield job, we expect manager Dusty Baker will stay true to his preference for veterans and send rookie phenom Jay Bruce down to AAA for the start of the season.

3. Working his way back from an array of shoulder maladies, Rich Harden made his first appearance of the spring on Monday against the Angels. He let up two runs in three innings and appears to be in good health. Keep a closer eye on him because if he remains healthy he has the talent to be an elite fantasy baseball pitcher.

4. Mike Mussina was tagged for five runs in just over two innings pitched on Monday. Mussina, who did not have a single strikeout, started right where he left off in 2007. Roto owners banking on a comeback year may be disappointed if Mussina cannot adjust to his age, the way fellow AARP card holders like Greg Maddux and John Smoltz did.

Position Battles

2008-03-03T14:00:00.005-05:00

Throughout Spring Training we will follow many position battles. Here's an update on a few:

1. Red Sox, 5th Spot in Rotation

Many assumed that the 5th spot in Boston's rotation was Clay Buccholz's to lose after Curt Schilling went down with an injury. But the Sox signed former Cy Young award winner Bartolo Colon to compete for the job. Colon, who is coming back from several injury plaguedseasons, threw 42 fastballs in his latest bullpen session, reaching 90 mph on the gun. Conversely Buccholz was lit up for four runs and five hits in two innings of work against the Twins on Sunday. One start means very little, but this is a great competition to keep track of, as any starter in the Red Sox rotation is sure to win a lot of ball games.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/03/thumbs_up_on_co.html

2. Arizona, 3B.

Chad Tracy and Mark Reynolds were expected to battle it out for rights to the hot corner in Arizona. Tracy, previously a solid player with a good batting average and some pop in his bat, was troubled by injuries throughout '07. Reynolds, an unheralded prospect, was called up from the minors and pleasantly surprised the Diamondbacks with 17 homers and 62 rbis in only 366 at-bats.

We expect Reynolds to be the starter on opening day because Tracy is still only doing agility drills after September surgery on his right knee. All bets are off, however, once Tracy is back to full health. It may be difficult for Reynolds to retain the starting job if his BB:K ratio is the same as last season -- an unhealthy 37:129 (not that Tracy's is historically much better).

3. White Sox, outfield

The battle between Carlos Quentin and Jerry Owens is on. Quentin, formerly one of the tops prospects in the Diamondbacks system, doubled and scored a run on Sunday. For fantasy baseball owners, the key to this battle is whether there will be extra stolen bases or homers available on draft day. If Owens wins the job, expect him to steal 30+ bases with less rbi's than your typical little leaguer. If, Quentin is the starter expect about 15 homers, 60 rbi's and a good OBP%. This one is too early to call.

Comeback players?

2008-03-02T14:05:00.003-05:00

People banking on Mark Prior having a huge comeback year now that he's playing in a pitcher's ballpark, should dampen their expectations. According to the North County Times, Prior's rehab is going well, but he is not expected to make it back to the majors until June. In a recent bullpen session he only threw fastballs. Prior is stilll a decent sleeper pick, but with his injury history it is too risky to him even in the middle rounds of a draft. http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/03/02/sports/padres/14ce20ce3068becb882573ff007b79a0.txt

The A's shelled Barry Zito on Saturday. Zito, a former ace for the A's, let us eight runs in 2/3 of an inning. Many Roto fans thought Zito would excel after leaving the A's to pitch in the DH-less National League, but Zito struggled all year. A quick look at Zito's three year trend, with particular attention to his strikeout numbers, suggests that he is not poised for a major comeback.

Chan Ho Park, a non roster invitee to the Dodgers camp, is trying to make the team as a middle reliever. Although a long shot, Park is off to a good start as he pitched two scoreless innings on Saturday against the Mets.

John Patterson made his spring debut for the Nationals on Saturday, and appears to be in good health. But buyer beware: Fantasy managers expecting Patterson to repeat his 2005 season (3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) may find that Patterson's stats will not hold up as well now that the Nats are leaving pitcher-friendly RFK.

2008-03-01T03:59:00.002-05:00

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball 101 Blog!

This blog will provide updates on recent news as well as analysis on trades, transactions, injuries and other events that may have an impact on your fantasy baseball team.

A few quick items for our first entry:

(1) Two things out of the Atlanta Braves camp: First, Javy Lopez has been signed and may be the favorite to backup Brian McCann. In shallow NL-only leagues, Lopez may be a decent pick for a second catcher spot. Although older than Yoda, Lopez can still hit a few out of the park if he gets some playing time. Second, pay close attention to Jair Jurrjens, competing for a rotation spot. Although he got roughed up on Friday, he has a good chance to earn the 5th spot in the rotation and scouts rave about his “stuff”. In fact, USA Today ranked him number 48 on a list of 100 names to know for 2008. (Sports Weekly’s 100 Names You Need to Know in 2008 - USATODAY.com)

(2) Juan Gonzalez – Yes, THAT, Juan Gonzalez, is attempting a comeback with the Cardinals. Although a long shot, the Cardinals offensive roster is not what it was the past few seasons. Gonzalez is off to a good start, hitting a three-run homer off Johan Santana on Friday.

(3) The Washington Post quoted Ryan Zimmerman making the following statement in Spring Training: Management has “done a good job of turning the whole organization around in about two years. We got a lot better and a lot younger at the same time," Ryan Zimmerman said. In a new ballpark, "we have six or seven guys who may become 30-homer hitters. Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns and I think we can. You watch Lastings Milledge and his hands are unbelievable. Elijah Dukes is Lastings with more pop. Wily Mo Pena may hit the ball further than anybody. We got two good-hitting catchers now. Felipe Lopez hit (23) homers in Cincinnati. Right now, we might have as much potential as any team in the league."

Nick Johnson hitting 30 home runs, especially after his injuries, seems a bit far fetched. But do not be surprised if the Nationals hitting is better than expected. Pena, Milledge, and Kearns have been highly touted for years. Accordingly, feel free to draft hitters from the Nats, but steer far away from their pitching staff. Individual ERA’s were frightening in a pitcher’s park; this year they could be astronomical.

We welcome any comments and suggestions and hope you enjoy the site.